tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251672323919283767.post6263450801686638079..comments2024-03-27T23:03:29.351-07:00Comments on Vancouver RE and then some: The business cycle in a nutshellFish10http://www.blogger.com/profile/09770438465068216630noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251672323919283767.post-81235152995140596362011-08-19T19:25:46.136-07:002011-08-19T19:25:46.136-07:00Repeat after me. "There'll be no Canadian...Repeat after me. "There'll be no Canadian recession." ;)<br />http://www.cme-mec.ca/?action=show&lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=AWVVI-MQ8X6-KD4NSAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251672323919283767.post-81896671505704632802011-08-19T07:11:25.457-07:002011-08-19T07:11:25.457-07:00Some commenter somewhere (I think CalculatedRisk) ...Some commenter somewhere (I think CalculatedRisk) commented that many "modern" cities will have their house prices more tightly tied to the stock market's performance than others. He surmised that to truly elicit a crash, the stock market needs to underperform, due to where residents tend to draw their incomes.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251672323919283767.post-48742803166133195582011-08-18T22:46:51.788-07:002011-08-18T22:46:51.788-07:001.07 Million below to be exact :)1.07 Million below to be exact :)fish10noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251672323919283767.post-59666603110453214212011-08-18T22:46:00.184-07:002011-08-18T22:46:00.184-07:00Based on last months sales the Sunshine Coast has ...Based on last months sales the Sunshine Coast has 28 months of inventory.<br /><br />One palatial waterfront home - 6500 foot, just sold for $1.4 Million. That is $1 MILLION below the original asking price.<br /><br />It has been on the market for a few weeks less than a year.fish10noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251672323919283767.post-77216409145116610282011-08-17T12:13:03.816-07:002011-08-17T12:13:03.816-07:00Anon (2)!
Thanks very much for your excellent ana...Anon (2)!<br /><br />Thanks very much for your excellent analysis and comments on the business cycle F & J.<br /><br />To reiterate, if we were (are) in early stage recovery -- the seeming reversal is due to improper fiscal intervention. Or possibly we never were in recovery, it was just a bandage -- and it won't hold. Because they are a lot of recovery signs. It's interesting!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251672323919283767.post-90896542444290119612011-08-16T12:42:27.131-07:002011-08-16T12:42:27.131-07:00They're ccoming round the mountain,
here they ...They're ccoming round the mountain,<br />here they come ... tra la la ... pump pump pump<br /><br />http://www.mingpaovan.com/htm/News/20110816/vaa1h.htm<br /><br />http://www.mingpaovan.com/htm/News/20110816/vaa2.htmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251672323919283767.post-37966405028791414822011-08-15T13:42:55.605-07:002011-08-15T13:42:55.605-07:00Hi Jesse
Indeed- the business cycle is not just f...Hi Jesse<br /><br />Indeed- the business cycle is not just for capitalism, but it gets much more murky when we look at feudal, communist or other systems where the cycles are so several distorted. Of course it could be said that Emperor Greenspan (and that is the amount of power he had) also distorted things by constantly interfering to save speculators.<br /><br />Poor Keynes- his name is taken in vain to justify all sorts of actions he would have found abhorent- like saving banks and hedge funds.<br /><br />Skeptic- the reason their are so many Jewish people in high positions in finance, is that they were instrumental in getting the whole industry going in the US!<br /><br />Also most of Madoff's victims were Jewish too.<br /><br />However I do agree that more diversity in these positions would be a good thing. Even if there is no nepotism, there may be a perception of this.fish10noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251672323919283767.post-56263899513933314802011-08-15T13:06:24.387-07:002011-08-15T13:06:24.387-07:00A good "failure" of Keynesian principles...A good "failure" of Keynesian principles was the building of the new Oakland Bay Bridge. The idea by the government was to invest in infrastructure and the Bay Bridge was in need of significant repairs. So the government got billions to spend but instead of employing locally unemployed workers, they outsourced most of the build to China because it was cheaper! LOL so much for infrastructure spending to reduce unemployment!<br /><br />But what was the local authority to do? US labour was far too expensive. They could either spend the money getting a bridge that would last 50 years with local workers, or spend the money getting a better quality bridge (just by getting more workers and materials for the same money, not on the workmanship necessarily) that would last 70 years by using Chinese workers. Tough call.jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251672323919283767.post-57211419879022661512011-08-15T13:00:40.041-07:002011-08-15T13:00:40.041-07:00Sounds good. Business cycles aren't limited to...Sounds good. Business cycles aren't limited to capitalism, though!<br /><br />IIRC Keynes suggested not necessarily that business cycles can be "smoothed" but that unused labour capital should be employed via government spending when there is a demand depression.<br /><br />It makes little sense to build more houses and cars when houses and cars were already oversubscribed during the previous boom, but other areas of an economy were likely starved during excesses and these areas could be reconstituted. In the US, much of its infrastructure is in need of repair so why not repair it. Its energy infrastructure is dependent on foreign sources so why not develop less geographically-dependent sources. Its education quality is poor so why not improve it. Et cetera.<br /><br />The key for Keynes's ideas, then, is jobs, but best to supply jobs that do something that is productive. On that front, as of today, government austerity is a bad thing according to Keynes but IMO that should not prevent governments from "re-assigning" people to more productive endeavors. That might mean, dare I say it, more people getting some fresh air and finding their true calling wielding a shovel!jessehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02155122147972263497noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251672323919283767.post-30426696741887084402011-08-15T08:53:42.873-07:002011-08-15T08:53:42.873-07:00Fish I hope you and your readers don't take th...Fish I hope you and your readers don't take this comment the wrong way, but there is something that all of us in the business are well aware of, and that is how many of the big players in this saga have similar backgrounds. Either educational, or experience or even religion!<br /><br />Eg Summers, Rubin, Greenspan, Bernanke, the head of Goldman (Blankfien) and JPMorgan (Dimon) and most of the other investment banks, and the NY Fed Chief which allowed Goldman to become a bank and access government money and of course Madoff- they are all Jewish.<br /><br />Now of course I dont mean to scapegoat any group. But when so much of the financial power is in one group- whatever they are Sikhs, Jehovahs Witnesses or anything- it could lead to looking after each others interests to the detriment of others.<br /><br />Just a comment which you won't find mentioned anywhere else, wven though it is well known.skepticnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251672323919283767.post-11784671541911151002011-08-15T07:25:01.802-07:002011-08-15T07:25:01.802-07:00Jesse- if you think I missed anything out in this ...Jesse- if you think I missed anything out in this short synopsis - feel free to chime in.Fish10https://www.blogger.com/profile/09770438465068216630noreply@blogger.com