The news of falling assessments was all over News 1130, CTV and the papers today.
CTV
Vancouver Sun
Ironically a falling assessed value makes things even more difficult to sell in hard hit areas.Why? Because buyers will start wondering why they should pay more than a number which is dropping. In fact maybe they should pay less to account for future declines.
And lenders who were happy and foolish enough to lend way over assessed value in the way up, will now look at assessed value as some sort of base value for lending (which it isn't). That unfortunately is how human psychology works.
Revisiting the Trump trade
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*Preface: Explaining our market timing models*
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time
horizons. The "*Ultimate Market Timing Mo...
5 days ago
Where to be born Index, 2013
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CTV BC repeated the same news coverage at six. However, 10 minutes or so before that, Tsur's face flashed on the screen and Muir's name was mentioned. Didn't pay much attention to the craps, telling buyers not to wait and expect price drop $hit.
ReplyDeleteMay be this could help the greedy pigs to sleep better in 2013.
Chinese Fly Cash West, by the Suitcase
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323635504578213933647167020.html
And there was this:
ReplyDeletehttp://ca.news.yahoo.com/vancouvers-hottest-property-values-dip-2012-005956164.html
Wonder how much the assessments fell in West Van and Van West?
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Unrelated to this article, but scroll down to read the slide show "Canada's Best and Worst Housing Markets".
ReplyDelete5th Worst: Fraser Valley, BC -- Down 25.5%
Percent change in total dollar value of home sales, Nov. 2011 to Nov. 2012 Source: CREA
4th Worst: Victoria, BC -- Down 26%
Percent change in total dollar value of home sales, Nov. 2011 to Nov. 2012 Source: CREA
3rd Worst: St. Catharines, ON -- Down 26.9%
Percent change in total dollar value of home sales, Nov. 2011 to Nov. 2012 Source: CREA
2nd Worst: Vancouver -- Down 32.2%
Percent change in total dollar value of home sales, Nov. 2011 to Nov. 2012 Source: CREA
Worst: Halifax, NS -- Down 36.1%
Percent change in total dollar value of home sales, Nov. 2011 to Nov. 2012 Source: CREA
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/01/02/chinese-cash-seizures-canadian-border_n_2396604.html#slide=1893004
2 friends in Vancouver West reported a drop of -6% in both their assessment values.
ReplyDeleteThis 4-year old house on 2718 W 20th Avenue is asking -13.5% below AssV, or $350K below.
http://www.seevirtual360.com/themes/50/flashTheme.aspx?listingID=24036
The fixtures are ugly, out of character with the west side.
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Richmond's properties' valuations have not increased since Japan's 2011 earthquake. This table from Singtao.ca lists 5 houses in Richmond with the highest assessed values in 2013.
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This news is at least weeks' old, if not months' and even years' old. However, the RE-pimps are getting creative with their caption.
ReplyDelete"Chinese flying cash into Canada to rescue the real estate market"
http://tinyurl.com/a8oye7j
http://postimage.org/image/jcj6if3q3/
ReplyDeleteIn about one year, the CBSA intercepted about $13M undeclared cash at YVR. These travelers claimed the money was to purchase real estate properties and cars in Canada. They'd rather pay hefty fines at the airport than banks' minimal charges. Something just doesn't add up.
How many xxx,xxxM went undetected and undeclared? And our government are nickel and dimed us to death.
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On Friday, 2012/Jan/07
Deletenew listings: 292
price changes: 76
sales: 105
sell/list: 35.96%
vs
2013/Jan/07
new listings: 436
S/L: 24.31%
:D :D :D
Anon- got an more numbers for 2012?
Deletenew 430
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sold 117
2012/Jan/09
Deletenew listings: 489
price changes: 65
sales:72
S/L: 14.98%
2012/Jan/10
new listings: 502
price changes: 72
sales:160
S/L: 31.87%
2012/Jan/11
new listings: 371
price changes: 94
sales:102
S/L: 27.49%
Inventory will be building up ...
Vancouver house prices to decline further, real estate panel predicts (updated)
ReplyDeleteTuesday, January 8, 2013
By Tracy Sherlock, Vancouver Sun
http://www.vancouversun.com/mobile/news/top-stories/Vancouver+house+price+decline+this+year+real+estate/7790495/story.html
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"Federal regulators released final mortgage rules on Thursday aiming to clean up the marketplace by forcing lenders to consider a borrower’s ability to repay a loan, while also offering lenders protection from consumers’ legal actions if loans go bad. "
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/b26w5m5
2012 January
ReplyDelete============
2012/Jan/03
new listings: 328
price changes: 109
sales: 94
S/L: 28.66%
Avg List Price: $657,909
Avg Sale Price: $628,509
Avg Diff $: $-29,400
Avg Diff %: -4.47%
2012/Jan/04
new listings: 388
price changes: 87
sales: 97
S/L: 25%
Avg List Price: $646,788
Avg Sale Price: $625,429
Avg Diff $: $-21,359
Avg Diff %: -3.30%
2012/Jan/05
new listings: 350
price changes: 87
sales: 45
S/L: 12.86%
Avg List Price: $646,788
Avg Sale Price: $625,429
Avg Diff $: $-21,359
Avg Diff %: -3.30%
On Friday, 2012/Jan/06
new listings: 292
price changes: 76
sales: 105
sell/list: 35.96%
Avg List Price: $591,946
Avg Sale Price: $571,109
Avg Diff $: $-20,837
Avg Diff %: -3.52%
2012/Jan/09
new listings: 489
price changes: 65
sales: 72
S/L: 14.98%
Avg List Price: $620,735
Avg Sale Price: $596,531
Avg Diff $: $-24,204
Avg Diff %: -3.90%
2012/Jan/10
new listings: 502
price changes: 72
sales: 160
S/L: 31.87%
Avg List Price: $512,932
Avg Sale Price: $492,124
Avg Diff $: $-20,808
Avg Diff %: -4.06%
2012/Jan/11
new listings: 371
price changes: 94
sales: 102
S/L: 27.49%
Avg List Price: $743,733
Avg Sale Price: $706,472
Avg Diff $: $-37,261
Avg Diff %: -5.01%
2012/Jan/12
new listings: 355
price changes: 65
sales: 70
S/L: 19.72%
Avg List Price: $680,025
Avg Sale Price: $645,199
Avg Diff $: $-34,826
Avg Diff %: -5.12%
2012/Jan/13
new listings: 366
price changes: 107
sales: 77
S/L: 21.04%
Avg List Price: $554,716
Avg Sale Price: $531,904
Avg Diff $: $-22,812
Avg Diff %: -4.11%
2012/Jan/16
new listings: 536
price changes: 88
sales: 85
S/L: 15.86%
Avg List Price: $649,269
Avg Sale Price: $620,535
Avg Diff $: $-28,734
Avg Diff %: -4.43%
2012 January
ReplyDelete============
2012/Jan/17
new listings: 483
price changes: 83
sales: 130
S/L: 26.92%
Avg List Price: $624,392
Avg Sale Price: $603,072
Avg Diff $: $-21,320
Avg Diff %: -3.41%
2012/Jan/18
new listings: 405
price changes: 107
sales: 98
S/L: 24.20%
Avg List Price: $705,976
Avg Sale Price: $682,341
Avg Diff $: $-23,635
Avg Diff %: -3.35%17
2012/Jan/19
new listings: 376
price changes: 78
sales: 138
S/L: 36.70%
Avg List Price: $778,547
Avg Sale Price: $760,169
Avg Diff $: $-18,378
Avg Diff %: -2.36%
2012/Jan/22
new listings: 359
price changes: 78
sales: 138
S/L: 38.44%
Avg List Price: $673,154
Avg Sale Price: $644,263
Avg Diff $: $-28,891
Avg Diff %: -4.29%
2012/Jan/23
new listings: 402
price changes: 82
sales: 106
S/L: 26.37%
Avg List Price: $872,861
Avg Sale Price: $807,156
Avg Diff $: $-65,705
Avg Diff %: -7.53%
2012/Jan/24
new listings: 345
price changes: 85
sales: 189
S/L: 43.45%
Avg List Price: $686,537
Avg Sale Price: $671,662
Avg Diff $: $-14,875
Avg Diff %: -2.17%
2012/Jan/26
new listings: 279
price changes: 124
sales: 151
S/L: 54.12%
Avg List Price: $666,451
Avg Sale Price: $652,482
Avg Diff $: $-13,969
Avg Diff %: -2.10%
2012/Jan/27
new listings: 285
price changes: 104
sales: 139
S/L: 48.77%
Avg List Price: $590,324
Avg Sale Price: $577,701
Avg Diff $: $-12,623
Avg Diff %: -2.14%
2012/Jan/30
new listings: 393
price changes: 90
sales: 163
S/L: 41.48%
Avg List Price: $748,345
Avg Sale Price: $725,347
Avg Diff $: $-22,998
Avg Diff %: -3.07%
2012/Jan/31
new listings: 392
price changes: 126
sales: 167
S/L: 42.6%
Avg List Price: $770,404
Avg Sale Price: $754,400
Avg Diff $: $-16,004
Avg Diff %: -2.08%
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Gomez's quarterly on Housing Bubble Watch, the link is broken. Anyways I found past discussions at VHB that I saved. ;)
ReplyDeleteThursday, December 01, 2005
Gomez: Van condos are bubbly
Carl Gomez from TD has released his quarterly housing market report. Here is the .html version, and here is the .pdf.
I agree with most of his stances: overall Canadian market is hot, but only really bubbly in Vancouver. Especially condos. He has an extended section on the Vancouver condo market.
check out this quote:
Thus, the only reasonable explanation for the outsized pace of price growth in Vancouver’s condo market is due to heightened expectations of future capital appreciation or put simply, speculation. For example, the user cost of capital suggests that a current condo “investor” in Vancouver is likely to be willing to accept below-fair-value rental yields since they assume that future price appreciation will cover the loss. It does not matter whether such an “investor” plans to flip the property in six months, one year or two years. All that matters is that an investor’s decision to buy has been predicated on expectations of significant future price growth – the exact definition of a price bubble.
Recall, this is an economist from a major Canadian bank, not some crazy loony internet blogger like the VHB.
Where are we heading? Gomez has some thoughts:
Finally, another possibility is that a potential correction will be delayed, as expectations of future price gains stay elevated. Indeed, the awarding of the 2010 Winter Olympic Games to Vancouver has been suggested as a major reason why strong condo price growth can be sustained for another four years or so. However, this raises the question of what happens once the Games are over? Under such circumstances, the probability of a “hard landing” becomes even higher, especially as a rash of condo purchasers attempt to liquidate their holdings in order to realize potential capital gains. Cognizant that this could occur, some savvy condo holders might attempt to liquidate earlier than everyone else. Unfortunately, in a market as large as Vancouver’s, that would eventually transmit a “sell” signal to other market participants as well. The ensuing supply glut would still ensure a hard landing for condos.
posted by Van Housing Blogger at 7:39 AM
Freako was on first name basis with Gomez! @_@
ReplyDeleteRecapturing some great lines here ......
G: "the current rate of condo price appreciation is still about 10–15 percentage points faster than what it should be, suggesting that Vancouver’s condo market may now be at its most overvalued point in years"
F: "Yeah Carl. Finally somebody who doesn't equate affordability headroom with fair valuation."
G "Historically low interest rates do not provide the answer since the user cost of capital approach already establishes allowances for this fundamental factor."
F: "Yeah again. Unlike certain CMHC spokesmen who keep going on about low rates, Carl sees what I have been railing about for a while, that affordability actually worsened as rates dropped. Classic overshoot."
G: "Thus, the only reasonable explanation for the outsized pace of price growth in Vancouver’s condo market is due to heightened expectations of future capital appreciation or put simply, speculation."
F: "As noted earlier, only fundamentals drive prices in the long run."
G: "While we have shown evidence of a speculative bubble in Vancouver’s condo market, this does not imply that a major crash is forthcoming."
ReplyDeleteF: More kudos to Carl. I have seen some talking points denying existence of bubble because real estate cannot "crash" overnight like stocks can. This is a sneaky attempt at three card monty by substituting "bubble pop" with "crash". Precluding a crash does not preclude a bubble. You can have a crash without a bubble, and a bubble without a crash. All I know is that RE will underperform. If the pain comes in one year or 10 years, I don't know.
G: "some observers have suggested that no correction at all will be warranted given that the imputed rents used in our analysis have merely been slow to adequately reflect the improving fundamentals of the city, including such factors as stronger population growth. '
F: Spoke too soon, there is the forward looking argument, the only potentially valid one to justify current prices.
G: "Vancouver’s population would need to be growing by an annual rate of over 3 per cent in the next few years in order to help generate the annual 8 per cent growth in imputed rents necessary to justify the current rate of price appreciation in condos. "
F: I am floored. Forward looking analysis!
G: "But given the long construction periods for condos, what happens if demand suddenly softened in response to a bursting price bubble? "
F: Yeah triple! He realizes that current demand cannot necessarily be extrapolated. As I have said millions of times, current demand is increasingly made up of investor types and owners more worried about rising prices than current need. As such, sentiment could change on a dime, and investor turn from net buyers to net sellers inflating supply in a jiffy in race for the exits in musical chairs style. I don't think many people realize just how explosive this situation really is.
Good job Carl.
11:57 AM, December 01, 2005
It took the fat cats 7 years to turn around after they and their friends had stuffed their faces IN GREED WE TRUST.
ReplyDeleteHeadlines nowadays have a common theme like a choreographed dance.
January 15, 2013
December home sales plunge
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/1/15/December-home-sales-plunge-.aspx
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Down goes the housing market
http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/01/15/down-goes-the-housing-market/
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Thanks for the daily numbers, fish.
ReplyDeleteThe Media is taking a cue from Bochy. The writing is in the wall, as it starts to get lurid.
``Canada’s housing market can best be plotted on two timelines: pre-Flaherty and post-Flaherty. And for many, the post-Flaherty era is a good thing.``
Scroll down to the sub-heading ``Housing cools`` (in Canada) in an article on ``Germany`s gold``.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/germany-plans-to-repatriate-billions-in-gold-from-new-york-paris-report/article7360909/
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wow!
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I received a complimentary copy of MaClean's January 14 Issue in the mail, from Rogers.
ReplyDeleteSo now, the neighborhood service promoters are cashing in on the "Great Real Estate Crash of 2013". HA! :P
http://m.publishing.rogers.com/macleans/share/2013-01/assets/images/ipad_app_bttn.jpg
CNY special!!!
ReplyDelete"600 big bosses in Vancouver"
scroll down to sub-heading "Considering emigrating"
http://tinyurl.com/agloexu
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