At a MOI of nearly 7, we should see some price pressure. We should know in the next few days how March went for us.
Larry should have his averages out and I am hoping we won't see the shocker of last month, when a few very big sales skewed detached prices while attached and apartments drifted down.
I have completely lost faith in the various HPI brought out by the RE Boards, and I will looking to the median price for my next metric to watch.
If I had to guess...I would say a small drop in median price- say 1% or so and all 3 segments moving down in the averages.
Revisiting the Trump trade
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*Preface: Explaining our market timing models*
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time
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5 days ago
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ReplyDeleteLarry's averages are up. Not much change either way. We await the REBGV numbers.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.yattermatters.com/
Another HPI birther. I assume you also don't believe the numbers that Teranet puts out? They correlate above 90% with MLS HPI so if you believe one, you should probably believe the other.
ReplyDeletenumbers
ReplyDelete594 new
307 price change
179 sold
6736 detached
8453 attached
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Benchmark change from March 2012
ReplyDeleteDetached -5%
Apartment -3.3%
Attached -2.5%
OK maybe I will become a benchmark believer now :)
More snippets.
ReplyDeletethe benchmark price is down 11% over 5 years for Whistler detached.
-14% for the Sunshine Coast. No shock there.
benchmark aprtment down 2.2% over 5 years for vancouver. Down 10% for West Van. Lots of other places down double digits.
Hey fish,
ReplyDeleteI'm sure you have mentioned it many times before, but what areas do your numbers represent?
I think it's interesting that the areas where there has been a large amount of foreign speculation (such as Richmond) have led the downward trend, while areas with a larger component of local aspirational buyer (Coquitlam for example) are slightly lagging. Its becoming clear that the pre-Olympic speculative demand never developed into actual real demand. I expect prices with fall at a faster rate when the general public really catches on, and they are slowly starting to figure it out. Even the media does not appear to be exclusively bullish in their latest reporting. This is going to take years to hit bottom however.
everything on the Vancouver MLS for sale.
DeleteDifferent parameters from Paul B.
I would like to see a few months well over 7 MOI and inventory continuing to climb to call a bear victory tough.
numbers
ReplyDelete584 new
186 price change
187 sold
6839 detached
8547 attached
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