Flat inventory. 28% less sales than last Feb. (2012)
SFH prices YOY:
Median down 3.6%
Average down 3.8%
But benchmark comes to the rescue again - up 0.7%
Sales to active listings ratio = 10% ie MOI of 10.
The stats package is here
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Monday, March 4, 2013
BMO does it again...
Goes sub 3% on the five . Is this a prudent move for either the bank or the buyers. The buyers get better rates, but will they just buy more house than they can afford? Will it push them into the market just before a possible significant correction?
Will they gain on monthly savings but lose on the price?
What about the bank? We are looking at significantly lower activity in the housing across Canada, so are they just trying to price out competitors?
Well this is their first quarter report .
TORONTO—Bank of Montreal said its first-quarter profit dipped 5% as revenue edged lower and provisions for loan losses rose....The bank said its total loan-loss provisions climbed to C$178 million from C$141 million.
What will this do, well it will bring in more business and allow them to book more profit, but how will it help reduce loan losses? It wont.
If you entice people to buy more house or to over-extend they are less likely to pay you back. Maybe BMO has such tight internal controls that they will tell their lending officers not to push the borrowers into more debt than they can afford. Go for to the same house, just pay a lower rate for it. That would be the sensible thing to do. However if you think Banks are prudent and wise then maybe you should think again after reading this link. They look prudent when things are good.
What about Flaherty? Well he doesn't seem to pleased about this move : “My expectation is that banks will engage in prudent lending – not the type of ‘race to the bottom’ practices that led to a mortgage crisis in the United States,” Mr. Flaherty said in a statement to the Globe on Sunday, after Bank of Montreal reduced its price on five-year fixed-rate mortgages to 2.99 per cent from 3.09 per cent.
And nor should he, these too-big-too-fail behemoths know that with the CMHC and with the Finance Minister's ear, they will bailed out of any crisis which they helped make.
Lets leave the last word to a bank analyst
Will they gain on monthly savings but lose on the price?
What about the bank? We are looking at significantly lower activity in the housing across Canada, so are they just trying to price out competitors?
Well this is their first quarter report .
TORONTO—Bank of Montreal said its first-quarter profit dipped 5% as revenue edged lower and provisions for loan losses rose....The bank said its total loan-loss provisions climbed to C$178 million from C$141 million.
What will this do, well it will bring in more business and allow them to book more profit, but how will it help reduce loan losses? It wont.
If you entice people to buy more house or to over-extend they are less likely to pay you back. Maybe BMO has such tight internal controls that they will tell their lending officers not to push the borrowers into more debt than they can afford. Go for to the same house, just pay a lower rate for it. That would be the sensible thing to do. However if you think Banks are prudent and wise then maybe you should think again after reading this link. They look prudent when things are good.
What about Flaherty? Well he doesn't seem to pleased about this move : “My expectation is that banks will engage in prudent lending – not the type of ‘race to the bottom’ practices that led to a mortgage crisis in the United States,” Mr. Flaherty said in a statement to the Globe on Sunday, after Bank of Montreal reduced its price on five-year fixed-rate mortgages to 2.99 per cent from 3.09 per cent.
And nor should he, these too-big-too-fail behemoths know that with the CMHC and with the Finance Minister's ear, they will bailed out of any crisis which they helped make.
Lets leave the last word to a bank analyst
Analysts questioned whether lower rates are really a wise move by banks right now.
“How credit worthy is the marginal mortgage borrower in a market with a debt-to-income ratio at 163 per cent and an all-time high home ownership rate?” asked National Bank analyst Peter Routledge.
Friday, March 1, 2013
What is the average price for Feb?
Larry is out with his numbers , quick and reliable as ever.
The average SFH is back up to $1,221,037, within spitting distance of last Feb's high. Despite sales being 35% less than last Feb
No doubt our local media which is so good at doing in depth analysis will trumpet this rise (next to pictures of phantom mansions), but as Larry says 3 big sales skewed the results.
Working off Larry's numbers:
Sales SFH = 707 for Feb 2013
Total Volume = 707 x 1,221,037 = $863,273,159
3 sales at 11,000,000 + 14,000,000 + 18,000,000 = $43,000,000
Take 43,000,000 away from 863,273,159 = $820,273,159
Divide that by the number of sales 704 = $1,165,160
That would be less than Feb 2011's average. Quite incredible the effect of a few very large sales.
I don't know how the huge sales compare with last year or the year before, but with a 35% drop in
total sales, 15% more inventory and a SFH MOI of 9.25, this is anything but a strong market.
The Median will tell the tale.
The average SFH is back up to $1,221,037, within spitting distance of last Feb's high. Despite sales being 35% less than last Feb
No doubt our local media which is so good at doing in depth analysis will trumpet this rise (next to pictures of phantom mansions), but as Larry says 3 big sales skewed the results.
Working off Larry's numbers:
Sales SFH = 707 for Feb 2013
Total Volume = 707 x 1,221,037 = $863,273,159
3 sales at 11,000,000 + 14,000,000 + 18,000,000 = $43,000,000
Take 43,000,000 away from 863,273,159 = $820,273,159
Divide that by the number of sales 704 = $1,165,160
That would be less than Feb 2011's average. Quite incredible the effect of a few very large sales.
I don't know how the huge sales compare with last year or the year before, but with a 35% drop in
total sales, 15% more inventory and a SFH MOI of 9.25, this is anything but a strong market.
The Median will tell the tale.
Monday, February 25, 2013
I'm back...
Had a nice break. Excellent submissions on the Vancouver competition. My favorites:
frank:
Vancouver-where you can hike in the morning, Sail in the afternoon,. ski in the evening, or pay a mortgage instead.
Vancouver- Rich, retired, running-from-the-law?- best place you could live
Vancouver- Rich, retired, running-from-the-law?- best place you could live
Vancouver- A great place to VISIT
Anonymous
Vancouver, the best place to stay broke and some:=)
.....................................
Just got back from Hawaii and had a few beers one night with a couple of real, native Hawaiians. Not much love for the tourists or the the 'Mainland... (no not Chinese)..but Americans'! - which include us. "They are either staying at expensive ecologically damaging resorts, or buying the waterfront and waterview condos for the two weeks they come and then rent it out as an investment."
The same properties a native Hawaiian could never dream of buying. Land that may have been expropriated, or bought for a song years ago. "Worse these new land owners are not here to fight the rapacious developers. They are not here to fight the illegal blocking of beach access by resorts and waterfront owners. They just come to play on the manicured, sprayed golf courses and fly back."
I certainly got an ear-full, and it was interesting to find a place where WE are the big buyers, much to the chagrin of some of the locals. In fact the local paper had just run a piece saying Canadians were buying the most investment property, after Mainland US citizens, and as much as all the rest combined (Japan, China, Aussy, Europeans etc)
Heck it is happening everywhere. The Hong Kong residents are complaining about the Mainland Chinese buying everything, even demonstrating about it. Until the bubbles collapse, then people long for the old days.
I will try and remember this fact when I get on my soap-box about the inflow of outside money pricing us out. We are doing it too!
If you are interested in the issue. Hawaii. Land. Independence. will bring you a lot of info on Google like this.
Sunday, February 17, 2013
Going to be out of town for a week...
Thought of an amusing exercise you can indulge in, while I am away.
We knew that advertising executives spend a great deal of brian power coming up with the perfect catch line to sell something. Now that something can be a city or State/province.
Ontario- Yours to discover!
BC- Canada Starts here!
Vancouver- the best place on Earth! or the Best Place to Live!
Ok so now it is yours turn. What pithy statement can you come up with. Nothing with profanities, or sexual, racial or other slurs please. Let your imagination run wild. It doesn't have to be RE related- your call.
Here are a couple to get you going.
Vancouver- Where HAM comes to get washed.
Vancouver- Where two-by-fours cost more than gold.
Ok they were pretty lame, lets see what you guys can come up.
We knew that advertising executives spend a great deal of brian power coming up with the perfect catch line to sell something. Now that something can be a city or State/province.
Ontario- Yours to discover!
BC- Canada Starts here!
Vancouver- the best place on Earth! or the Best Place to Live!
Ok so now it is yours turn. What pithy statement can you come up with. Nothing with profanities, or sexual, racial or other slurs please. Let your imagination run wild. It doesn't have to be RE related- your call.
Here are a couple to get you going.
Vancouver- Where HAM comes to get washed.
Vancouver- Where two-by-fours cost more than gold.
Ok they were pretty lame, lets see what you guys can come up.
Friday, February 8, 2013
Congratulations!
We made it!
Thank you HAM and Mr Flaherty and Carney....and thank you Greenspan and Bernanke for causing the financial mess which led to ZIRP....and where would be without our local cheerleading media and politicians and of course our Eastern retirees, oh and how could I forget the banks, without you and the CMHC-in-your-pocket we would never have been able to achieve the heights that we have achieved...
And the Grammy... OSCAR.... stuffed lemon coloured llama... RE award GOES TO US
We are now officially the priciest city in North America and it isn't because of the price of our bread.
Thank you HAM and Mr Flaherty and Carney....and thank you Greenspan and Bernanke for causing the financial mess which led to ZIRP....and where would be without our local cheerleading media and politicians and of course our Eastern retirees, oh and how could I forget the banks, without you and the CMHC-in-your-pocket we would never have been able to achieve the heights that we have achieved...
And the Grammy... OSCAR.... stuffed lemon coloured llama... RE award GOES TO US
We are now officially the priciest city in North America and it isn't because of the price of our bread.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Do you feel like you have been screwed? You have been
Sorry to interrupt the normal RE news-flow.
Today, you, the tax-payer have had your nose rubbed in the dirt. Two Government appointed civil servants, Dave Basi and Bobby Virk were charged and pleaded guilty to fraud and breech of trust in relation to the BC rail sale in 2003.
The big deal was the legal fee, which the Government picked up the tab for....$6 MILLION!!!!
The Auditor General wanted to look into the lawyers billings in detail and find out how such a humungous bill arose and today Chief Justice Bauman said .. no you don't! that would infringe upon client lawyer confidentiality. WHAT???!!
Lets looks at this logically, shall we:
We have two Government employees , who have admitted to committing fraud, we have their legal fees picked up by the tax-payer (while fighting crown Counsel which we also pay for!) Now the Government watchdog wants to find out why the bill was so high, and the reason he can't find out is because of the secret code between the criminals and his lawyers who billed the huge fees??
Does that make sense?
Lets work out the Math:
Even if every scrap of work was done by a senior lawyer at $300/hour. At $6 Million. We are looking at 20,000 hours of work. At 40 hours a week...that's TEN YEARS OF BILLABLE WORK!! With no holidays or days off.
Yes I know many senior lawyers bill $400-500/hour or more. BUT please don't tell me a lot of this work wasn't done by juniors billing less.
Also who is watching the till and bargaining? This Government has been nickle and diming the teachers and other groups, it SHOULD be demanding a great deal from private contractors. A fixed fee. Lots of other organizations bargain fixed legal fees or a ceiling, why not the Government.
And we will never know if the $6 Million was padded or fair? We don't know if a minister okayed the payment or some junior clerk just paid the invoices every month until it added up to $6 Million. I read that there were over 30 similar cases paid for by the Government. By not allowing the Auditor General access to the information, the Chief Justice has closed the door on any accountability.
Crazy eh? Pay $6 Million to defend two guilty Government bozos and don't allow any oversight from the auditor.
We need a strong legal system or we end up like all the countries where people are being jailed for no reason, but the implication of this decision seems that if the Government is paying the bill go for broke!!
BTW- who were they selling the information too. Shouldn't there be some arrests on the receiving end too??
..........
Talking of convicted criminals....
This convicted felon has a new job, though it seems he has moved from pontificating about how we should run our country to sex toys and yoga. Sounds positively awful.
Today, you, the tax-payer have had your nose rubbed in the dirt. Two Government appointed civil servants, Dave Basi and Bobby Virk were charged and pleaded guilty to fraud and breech of trust in relation to the BC rail sale in 2003.
The big deal was the legal fee, which the Government picked up the tab for....$6 MILLION!!!!
The Auditor General wanted to look into the lawyers billings in detail and find out how such a humungous bill arose and today Chief Justice Bauman said .. no you don't! that would infringe upon client lawyer confidentiality. WHAT???!!
Lets looks at this logically, shall we:
We have two Government employees , who have admitted to committing fraud, we have their legal fees picked up by the tax-payer (while fighting crown Counsel which we also pay for!) Now the Government watchdog wants to find out why the bill was so high, and the reason he can't find out is because of the secret code between the criminals and his lawyers who billed the huge fees??
Does that make sense?
Lets work out the Math:
Even if every scrap of work was done by a senior lawyer at $300/hour. At $6 Million. We are looking at 20,000 hours of work. At 40 hours a week...that's TEN YEARS OF BILLABLE WORK!! With no holidays or days off.
Yes I know many senior lawyers bill $400-500/hour or more. BUT please don't tell me a lot of this work wasn't done by juniors billing less.
Also who is watching the till and bargaining? This Government has been nickle and diming the teachers and other groups, it SHOULD be demanding a great deal from private contractors. A fixed fee. Lots of other organizations bargain fixed legal fees or a ceiling, why not the Government.
And we will never know if the $6 Million was padded or fair? We don't know if a minister okayed the payment or some junior clerk just paid the invoices every month until it added up to $6 Million. I read that there were over 30 similar cases paid for by the Government. By not allowing the Auditor General access to the information, the Chief Justice has closed the door on any accountability.
Crazy eh? Pay $6 Million to defend two guilty Government bozos and don't allow any oversight from the auditor.
We need a strong legal system or we end up like all the countries where people are being jailed for no reason, but the implication of this decision seems that if the Government is paying the bill go for broke!!
BTW- who were they selling the information too. Shouldn't there be some arrests on the receiving end too??
..........
Talking of convicted criminals....
This convicted felon has a new job, though it seems he has moved from pontificating about how we should run our country to sex toys and yoga. Sounds positively awful.
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