Friday, April 23, 2010

Bank of Canada caught on the Horns of it's own making

Just a quick post.

Retails sales came in weaker than expected, especially once you back out the car sales. The pre-Olympic boost has dropped.

Inflation has come in at a pretty tame 1.4% (though only by manipulating the numbers since housing is on fire and is the highest family expenditure).

So what is the Bank of Canada to do?

it's last statement made it clear that rate rises were just around the corner. It has already stated that Canadians are taking on too much debt and housing is over-heated.

So does it leave rates at zero and keep inflating the debt bubbles, until they burst like the US, losing all credibility.

Or does it raise in the face of weak data.

They should not have got themselves into this space in the first place. Zero rates = speculation and debt. You reap what you sow...


  1. Hmm, retail sales. On fire: Houses and cars, both financed with liberal doses of debt. Not on fire: Everything else.
    Speaking of cars, Maple Ridge Chrysler is heavily promoting a debt consolidation car loan. Buy a new car, you can get not only o% down, you can pay off your credit cards and end up with a loan far bigger than the car is worth, even before you drive it home and it depreciates 25% as they do.

    Fish, do you have any idea as to the accuracy of Canadian retail sales? I know that in the US, they will release a "rise" of retail sales proudly, yet when you look at federal and state sales tax revenues they are DOWN.
    It doesn't add up. The sales tax data is direct, non-adjusted, estimated or surveyed. The retail sales are from a small survey and heavily manipulated.

  2. Alex- I have my doubt about all Government statistics. They measure whatever looks benign and ignore what doesn't.

    Just read an excellent piece by Jeremy Grantham a US advisor, who says, the irresponsibly low rates are driving up all speculative assets and wont burst until:

    1) rates are raised, which he doubts the Central banks have the balls to do

    2) Another huge bubble is built up and bursts of it's own weight like the financial bubble of 2008.

    Stocks, gold, commodities and selective world real estate are in the this bubble. We are too. Despite the CMHC changes we still have cash-back mortgages, tempter rates from credit unions which will undoubtedly reset higher in a couple of years.

    Anything to get people borrowing- like that is the path to Eden. very depressing.

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