These projections are based on a linear model driven by the daily stats published by Gavin Hughes (http://www.nvcondos.ca/). I also need to credit Canadian from RE talks for initiating these projections and Jesse for helping to fill in missing historic data.
The intent of these posts is to get an early or predictive feel for how the month's numbers may end up, and discuss the impact and ramifications to our local real estate market. Please remember, that all models are wrong, but some models can be useful.
| Projection from | 25-Sep-2009 | : 17 of 21 days | ||
| Listings: | 5614 | (-9% yoy) | (+24% mom) | |
| Sales: | 3547 | (+124% yoy) | (+3% mom) | |
| Sell/List: | 63% | (+37 pp yoy) | (-13 pp mom) | |
| MOI: | 3.8 | (-71% yoy) | (+2% mom) | |
| Actives: | 13,643 | (-35% yoy) | (+5% mom) | |
| Rate of Increase: | 46 per day | |||
| Avg Price SFH: | $857,048 | (+8.5% yoy) | (-3.7% mom) | (-6.9% from peak) |
| Avg Price Condo: | $434,517 | (+7.3% yoy) | (+3.0% mom) | (-3.5% from peak) |
| 5-day Average SFH: | $911,863 | (+6.4% from current month) | ||
| 5-day Average Condo: | $423,588 | (-2.5% from current month) | ||
| Median Price SFH: | $701,271 | (+0.8% mom) | ||
| Median price Condo: | $375,051 | (+0.4% mom) | ||
Month to date: | ||||
| Total Listings: | 4545 | (Avg 267 per day) | ||
| Total Sales: | 2871 | (Avg 169 per day) | ||
We're still seeing very strong sales for this time of year, but new listings are on the rise. September will have the highest monthly total of new listings this year.
It looks like we have more sellers trying to take advantage of the recent price increases and sales activity. If sales hold up this fall, we may be able to reach an awkward balance. If sales decline and listings remain high, prices may begin to recede. This fall will be a good test of the strength of the market.
Note: Missing data for September 21. (Not published by Gavin). Baseline numbers will be posted in the comments.
* Disclaimer: These projections are not produced or endorsed by the REBGV.
Baseline data:
ReplyDelete--------- Last Year Last Month
Listings: 6,142 4,544
Sales: 1,585 3,441
MOI: 13.3 3.8
Actives: 21,002 13,025
Avg Price SFH: $790,037 $890,088
Avg Price Condo: $405,024 $421,920
Great post. Welcome aboard.
ReplyDeleteWelcome to the world of reel state bloggins, KK. I think this will be a useful addition to the local real estate blogging scene.
ReplyDeleteThanks KK- Hope to see your posts regularly.
ReplyDeleteIs the beginning of the turn in the market?
ReplyDeleteChipman seems to think so. Lets hope that red listing line keeps going north.
I think it does look like there is starting to be some weakness in the market, but that could just be wishful thinking. Sales are slowing, but that is typical for fall months. Who knows till it happens, but I dont see how these prices will be sustainable forever. I am more interested to see how fast the drop will be, and of course, how much.
ReplyDeleteAnyway welcome to the blog!
West Van is back to Realtors picking numbers out of the sky and some buyers actually paying them.
ReplyDeleteSales volume continues to decline:
11 New listings, 7 price changes 4 sales.