Friday, October 28, 2011

Out of Town for a Few days

I will back to examine the October numbers with you.

After a bearish start to October we have seen some recent strength in the sales. No surprise with the huge run-up in the markets and sentiment. The TSE and our RE sales seem to be very highly correlated at present.

Of course it wasn't helped by Carney's slap in the face of savers. No interest hikes for a long time. And have you noticed he has quit talking about over-indebted Canadians and the RE market. Seems like all these Central Bankers know is to fix one bursting bubble by blowing up another one.

And Carney is regarded s one of the best Central bankers in the world and may be moving to a take over an International bank regulatory body. The rationale being that our banks have survived the crisis so well. That's because we haven't had our crisis yet! ...and when we do, the risk has already been moved to the tax-payer's balance sheet via the CMHC.

So what are we going to get from the October number- trick or treat. I had though we were headed for lower numbers and stated that I thought we would be flat YOY for one of the indices. Hard to read if that will happen or I was too optimistic (bearishly optimistic).

Sales have firmed up in the second half of the month and as Larry Yatter's figures have shown, we have a mixed picture. Coquitlam has less sales, huge MOI and yet the average and median prices have gone up! I suspect due a change in the mix of sales.

On the other hand Richmond has less sales, the MOI is up but much less than Coquitlam and yet prices are down significantly. North Van also has stronger MOI and sales have been fairly steady but the prices are also down quite a bit.

So the final numbers could show anything. I will be watching for the HPI particularly to see what that shows. Clearly this Fall is weaker than last and the price trajectory has moved down.
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21 comments:

  1. frankOctober 28, 2011 at 7:47 AM

    Hey Fish

    Here we are analyzing the sales and the MOI and the rent/own ratio, do you think a HAM buyer even knows this stuff? They get off the plane and head straight for the area they want, buy and go. Until that comes to an end, there will be sales at the high end which will skew prices

    ReplyDelete
  2. Fish10October 28, 2011 at 11:40 PM

    Well they have stopped going to Richmond that's for sure. I think they are making bee-line for West Van right now, but even that frenzy is dipping a bit and is very selective. However it is clear from the prices being asked and paid that they have little regard for their money. I can only assume it was made in big cascading chunks and not in little dribs and drabs like the rest of us.

    A good summary of what has happened in Richmond

    http://tinyurl.com/3ghv87d

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousOctober 29, 2011 at 10:28 AM

    Frank keeps ignoring my challenge... hmm ... I wonder why...

    "I don't know if you're new here, Frank, but I posted throughout the life of this blog when I was holding RE and I posted when I sold. If you'd like me to show you the statements of my NFLX short, I will. If you'd like to compare my investment returns for 2009, 2010 or 2011, to yours, I'd love to do that. Better yet, put money where your mouth is, if your % returns on ANY of the past 3 years is better than mine, you win the bet, if mine is better, I win the bet. You name the price, no maximum, no minimum.

    I'll await your response. "

    ReplyDelete
  4. frankOctober 29, 2011 at 5:01 PM

    Hey Chad why don't you go bite at someone else's ankles.

    You tell us after the fact that you shorted Netflix and made a bundle. Why don't you tell what you are investing in right NOW and we will judge your manliness on that basis not your previous conquests.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousOctober 29, 2011 at 5:13 PM

    So you're still avoiding my challenge to compare investment returns? My audited results will include the NFLX short -- I'm a liar like you say so your results should be much better than mine.

    ReplyDelete
  6. just so you knowOctober 31, 2011 at 3:49 AM

    This year alone there are so many jackpot winners of 649 & LottoMax in Richmond, Vancouver & Surrey than the last 20 years combined. Anything and everything can be manipulated by the invisible hand, just like our pricey real estate.
    Hoarders still believe that immigrants will continue to support our housing market as evidenced by a buyers guide just off the printer.

    My cousin told me that none of his batch graduated this year has found a decent job. They cannot even get a minimum wage position in any restaurants, because of fierce competition from foreign youth on temporary work visas here.

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousOctober 31, 2011 at 5:51 AM

    ^ Huh?

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousOctober 31, 2011 at 8:58 AM

    Chad, you are also avoiding a challenge.
    "Why don't you tell what you are investing in right NOW..."

    ReplyDelete
  9. AnonymousOctober 31, 2011 at 12:11 PM

    Anonymous, you want in on the challenge too? I find it absolutely hysterical, but also beyond pathetic, that you two can chirp yet not step up to the plate when being challenged. Keep hiding you two -- you have both admitted by your dismissal of my challenge that I CRUSH your investment returns so keep trading your paper accounts.

    ReplyDelete
  10. AnonymousOctober 31, 2011 at 12:29 PM

    On the very same post you ask if I want in on the challenge and then accuse that I did not step up to the plate? WTF? You like to work in the past, don't you?

    First tell what you're buying now and I can tell you what I will be buying.

    I bought a bunch of Caterpillar for low $70 earlier this month, but that's so yesterday's news.

    ReplyDelete
  11. AnonymousOctober 31, 2011 at 5:36 PM

    Anonymous, last chance, are you going to take the challenge and compare investment returns for the last 3 years or are you going to hide behind the keyboard like Frank did? I'm not giving you free investment advice on a public forum, I'll gladly charge you for that. So are we going to send our results to an independent auditor or are you looking to avoid disgrace?

    #transparencykillswhenyoulie

    ReplyDelete
  12. AnonEHOctober 31, 2011 at 6:39 PM

    Remember Mish's report on "scores of Chinese business owners disappearing ..."

    They are here in V A N C O U V E R, presumably flipping real estates, LOL
    http://tinyurl.com/3nke2p8

    ReplyDelete
  13. AnonEHOctober 31, 2011 at 6:43 PM

    EXTRA
    EXTRA
    human rights lawyers strike gold

    http://www.mingpaotor.com/htm/News/20111031/taa1.htm

    ReplyDelete
  14. AnonEHOctober 31, 2011 at 6:58 PM

    So these crooked businessmen transferred bank loans via underground moneyTT to buy C$5M houses in West Vancouver.

    HAHAHA


    http://tinyurl.com/3lxxreu

    ReplyDelete
  15. AnonymousOctober 31, 2011 at 8:44 PM

    Chad, I'm up for the challenge. Meet you at of your office on Hasting and Main at noon tomorrow. Cheers.

    ReplyDelete
  16. AnonEHOctober 31, 2011 at 9:45 PM

    fish10,
    Michael Tippett had a hunch that they are in Vancouver. Wahahaha !

    http://www.tippett.org/2011/10/13/hundreds-of-chinese-businessmen-are-disappearing/

    http://www.mingpaovan.com/htm/News/20111031/vaa2.htm
    http://www.mingpaovan.com/htm/News/20111031/vaa1h.htm
    http://www.mingpaovan.com/htm/News/20111031/vab1h.htm
    http://www.mingpaovan.com/htm/News/20111031/vaa3.htm

    ReplyDelete
  17. AnonymousNovember 1, 2011 at 5:18 AM

    Anonymous,

    If you are actually up for the challenge (which based on your idiotic message I assume you are not) then we will mutually find an independent auditor and somewhere to hold the money in escrow.

    ReplyDelete
  18. daversNovember 1, 2011 at 11:23 AM

    Chad,

    There are a million ways to use the internet, but you are doing it wrong.

    You can continue to taunt every single bear on the forum with all the money you claim to have made in the past but you will probably never find anyone to make a bet involving independent auditors and escrow accounts. No one is going to go through that kind of mess to prove a point other than you.

    You may have made an ass load of money on RE. Good for you. You still gotta admit though, you got a little lucky on the timing. The greatest investors in the world will tell you that timing a market is a crapshoot. Educated guesses can be made but all the data in the world cant protect you from the irrational people involved in every market in the world. Especially in RE you can be trapped with a house for months or even years because the market slowed and no one was interested in buying for a while.

    Regardless, you seem to have gotten it right, kudos for that, but quit taunting people on here to make yourself feel good.

    I could have bought 3 years ago but didnt because I didnt want my housing costs to double which would limit the amount of money I could save and spend on more fun things. I am still in my mid 20s, so there will be time for being a mortgage slave later. I also thought we were and still are in a bubble. I am not claiming I can time the pop, so I have no problem waiting as long as it takes to fall back into reasonable territory.

    ReplyDelete
  19. AnonymousNovember 1, 2011 at 11:50 AM

    Davers,

    I did not start this, I posted the fact that I sold my condo and I got harassed by Frank. I am not one to back down when someone calls me out, I disclosed my thoughts throughout the whole process of me owning and if someone wants to call me out, I will challenge them to show that they can do better than me.

    ReplyDelete
  20. AnonymousNovember 1, 2011 at 12:15 PM

    I'll stop posting the challenge. I've made my point. The two guys avoided it and cowered as I expected.

    Back to talking RE

    ReplyDelete
  21. Fish10November 1, 2011 at 2:07 PM

    I am back and waiting for the Oct numbers.

    Enough of the challenging folks- this is not the three musketeers blog.

    If we have any investment ideas - RE or otherwise, lets call them out in real time and deal with the results, and no sniping if they fall short. Anyone that puts their views and opinions out there is being brave (and honest)

    ReplyDelete