How to trade the post-election melt-up
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*Mid-week market update*: I pointed out on the weekend (see A final update
on the Trump Trade: Tail-risk assessment) that the term structure of the
VIX had...
22 hours ago
None of those emotions represent people's view on Van RE.
ReplyDeleteWe're near the top of that rollercoaster with the prevailing emotion being COMPLACENCY.
I would say there is some anxiety building up in the RE community, and probably owners who are comparing the current value of their house to it's peak in May.
ReplyDeleteI'd describe it as "the feeling you get when your car isn't responding as well as it used to and you start thinking that skipping regular maintenance and fluid changes while consistently driving over the speed limit might have ruined the engine but you're not sure and it could be nothing so don't worry about it because the 'check engine' light hasn't come on yet".
ReplyDeleteAnxiety is probably where we are now. increasing inventory, lots of negativity coming from the MSM (like Global piece on Generation How), prices have started their decline (-10% from the peak), no more HAM bidding war on the west side, Richmond taking a beating, lots of trolling from the RE folks on bear blogs without compelling arguments, etc, etc.
ReplyDeleteLet's see how quickly we get to the denial stage... I would expect next spring after a really shitty autumn and winter.
I figured denial would come before anxiety. A little drop in prices and everyone figures its just a blip, but when it continues then the anxiety builds.
ReplyDeleteOf course this applies to owners, if the markers were to refer to us housing bears, the lables would be quite different.
True enough Davers.
ReplyDeleteUs bears would be between depression and hope.
BTW- I have decided to be done with Google adsense. Lost of hoops and nothing to show for it. I intended to donate the proceeds to charity (to be chosen by the readers) but there are so many hoops to jump through and so many 'invalids' and no payments that I have given up and will spare you the eye-stress. If they boot me off for saying this I will be reincarnated somewhere else and will broadcast this on the bear blogs.
ReplyDelete