Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Whowouldathunkit...

THE BCREA comes out with a bearish forecast on home prices..

Vancouver to drop 3.5%.

BC to drop 2.5%

....in 2012.

All from the pen and mouth of our very own Cameron Muir.

and here is what they say about Victoria

' Prices in Victoria will remain below the $504,561 average in 2010, however, slipping to $499,000 this year, then up to $501,000 in 2012.

“The Victoria market is being impacted by slower growth in employment, reduced interprovincial migration flows and continuing weakness in US tourism,” said the report.'


at

12 comments:

  1. jesseNovember 9, 2011 at 9:54 AM

    I might actually start to think that, one day, they will pin the tail on the donkey. Not a bad estimate, actually.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousNovember 9, 2011 at 10:24 AM

    now all i need is for my investments to go up in 2012 so i can have more for a downpayment in 2013. not likely, aye?

    ReplyDelete
  3. eh!November 9, 2011 at 1:42 PM

    We wanted 10K but is allotted only 3K more than last year under the PNP category. NB has shut the shop that churned out $60k-a-head to any-other-province of-your-choice. Perhaps there is still hope that 3/4 of Quebec's 7000 investors will somehow find their way here.

    Carney warns against "shadow" banking in his speech in London (UK). Although he did not mention the name of the country, everyone knows which one.

    Some may be nervous of being hoist with his own petard. Tick, tock, tick, tock ...

    ReplyDelete
  4. fish10November 9, 2011 at 2:46 PM

    Anon- As i have posted the local RE and the stock-market have been moving in lock-step recently.

    I am not brave enough to gamble with my down-payment money. GICs paying below inflation is what I am in.

    Doesn't sound good losing 1% of your principal (ie 3% inflation - 2% GIC) but home-owners are looking at a (3% + 3.5%) = -6.5% loss for 2012 in their principal which is of course leveraged up.

    Leverage is a winner on the way up and a killer on the way down.

    ReplyDelete
  5. jesseNovember 9, 2011 at 11:16 PM

    "Carney warns against "shadow" banking"

    If I loan money to myself and I see my shadow does that mean recession?

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousNovember 10, 2011 at 11:05 AM

    Fish,

    I have some in GICs but other stuff in sr. corp debt, and preferreds, yes and some in stocks. I can't bear earning 1% especially when the chance of being unable to purchase in this city is a real possibility anyway. I guess I'm gambling that I'll be locked out of this market if the Mainlanders buy and hold it all anyway. Even as a renter. Their buy, hold, don't rent strategy is a killer for locals.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Passed-overNovember 10, 2011 at 8:38 PM

    Anon- I agree. The Mainland Chinese buy and hold like a RE bank, and it is slowly killing some communities in this City.

    I was talking to a guy in West Van who said 3 houses next to each other were unoccupied, as were two houses facing them.

    This, in a city where there is a serious housing shortage.

    Yet none of the City Candidates for elections in any Municipality are even talking about this. I guess they think it would be too much restriction to prevent property hoarding or leaving homes empty, even if it was for the greater good.

    yet that is exactly what China is doing!

    ReplyDelete
  8. eh!November 10, 2011 at 11:16 PM

    Annon@11:05 AM, you can open an non-HK-resident a/cs through HSBC with higher rates. That's what people do to circumvent the restrictions imposed on Canadian residents from online trading with US forex brokers. They submitted their HK bank a/cs #, and trade online with Canadian Internet IPs, from Canada.

    LOL, rules and restrictions are for idiots aka ordinary folks like you and me.

    ReplyDelete
  9. eh!November 10, 2011 at 11:22 PM

    Or fly to HK and Oz to open non-resident a/cs. Then whenever you need the money, get your rellies to transfer the money as "gifts". A practice so common that local bank tellers know about it.

    http://www.commbank.com.au/personal/accounts/term-deposits/rates-fees.aspx

    ReplyDelete
  10. AnonymousNovember 11, 2011 at 10:06 AM

    eh!

    I guess you are open to currency fluctuations, then? But I suppose if commodity economies tank Canada and OZ will tank in a similar way. Seems like a lot of trouble when preferreds/sr. Canadian corp debt pays out the same way... some of it dividends.

    ReplyDelete
  11. old newsNovember 13, 2011 at 8:19 PM

    This article is about 2 years old. Every one knows how they especially the Investors category scammed our system.

    http://tinyurl.com/cw7s6et
    http://tinyurl.com/bv27tuz

    ReplyDelete
  12. eh!November 15, 2011 at 8:15 PM

    Anon, I'm uncomfortable to give you info over an anonymous site. Be careful what you read not just from the RE pumpers, but the self-styled bears with their own agenda while you missed out in 2004, 2006 and then again in 2008/2009. So much lies and misinfo. Business entrepreneurs/investors of the last decade are not of the same stuff as those who came in the 90s & 80s. Sinoforex (TRE) is a farce and I've no pity for those who speculated in their shares.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vjkmoVed60
    This housewife made millions selling her supermarket to Loblaw. Amerisource Pharm bought over the Richmond pharmaceutical company of an overseas chinese & his Filipina wife. And guess which factory (started in the early 90sby a HK immigrant) was bought over by French multinational company?

    ReplyDelete