I know what you are thinking

Fish posts twice a week and now he is posting every five minutes.

Ok so I am a little hyper-active at the moment.

We are at a crucial point in the market. We could go up or down or sideways :)

Seriously though. Demand is down. Price reductions are routine. MOI is now 7 months in Vancouver and much higher 30 minutes drive or a short ferry ride away. Wages have run up YOY and this puts pressure on the BoC to raise rates. Flaherty WANTS home prices to come down. What does this all add up to>>>>lower prices.

However some agents I speak to, say there are lots of regretful Randolphs, upset at having missed the quick crash of 2008/9, who are waiting for the slightest sign of weakness to pounce on a 'perceived bargain'.

BTW in the spirit of fairness I will have to say that North Van must have got the sales that they didn't have time to put on the system yesterday. From 1 sales yesterday we are up to 10.

In fact the numbers are 15, 9, 10.

But for Van West they are bearish today at 57, 39, 17. Some really nice reductions in there from crazy prices to just insane.

Most other places have list/sales from 30-60% nothing too exciting.

Can't read too much into any one day's results.

Have a great week-end.

Yeah- i know i am putting up posts too soon

However- we have to keep one eye on the economic indicators, and one blew my mind away.

The rate of wage increases for Canadians YOY was...wait for it...3.9%.

That is HUGE!. It would be huge in an average year, but in a year with low inflation and low interest rates that is enormous and we can see now why the BoC was raising rates, even as others were singing the double dip recession song (like the guy in my previous post).

And this increase is despite the rise in unemployment. Much like the Vancouver Housing market really, where we have less demand but still high (or even higher) prices.

I suspect it the huge swings we are seeing in the economic landscape from the sudden fiscal and policy shifts that are being thrown at us ie..'pump up the CMHC- dang we have a housing bubble, reign it in, drop rates to zero- dang borrowing is exploding, raise rates'

In any case employment income is a lagging indicator, but we will have to keep an eye on it.

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Look at the front page of the Vancouver Sun. I cannot bring myself to put a link. What us bears have been saying for some time, is finally being acknowledged by the what passes for media in this city and the Cof V. That incentives will be needed to unload that White Elephant - OKA as the Olympic Village.

Now the councillors are blaming the HST! First it was Ladner's council blaming the world financial chaos and now these guys say it is the HST.

Anybody but us seems to be the mantra at City Hall. How about this refreshing statement instead:

"We did NOT make a good deal here. We were badly advised and made some bad decisions and even now have no idea how much we are on the hook for. Oh, and BTW- we have already spent $XXXXX on legal advice and will probably spend a lot more. Sorry we know it is your tax money. At least you know that we weren't 'embarrassed' like they are in India now. And you can be happy that a lot of fun was had in the OV, remember they did run out of condoms."

Oh heck - here's the link

a must read...

Here are some snippets:

"Just to be clear, the Bank of Canada wasn't alone in spurring this huge – and unanticipated – housing boom. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) relaxed underwriting criteria in ways that made housing tremendously more affordable for marginal borrowers. Those home buyers could get a mortgage with almost no money down at near-zero short-term interest rates"

and

At the peak of our own mania last fall, home prices soared more than 20 per cent on a year-on-year basis and home sales skyrocketed 70 per cent. These data points all have a “U.S.A. circa 2005” feel to them

Here is the article

Now to be fair, Rosenberg has been calling for a drop in the stock market for almost a year now. I used to read his weekly up-dates, but found that there were soo gloomey, that it kept me from buying any stocks and I missed a good run-up.

However he make some very valid points in this article.

North by New West

North Van had astounding numbers today...

26 New listings....11 price changes..ONE sold. Wow. Oh yes and one price increase :)

I cannot explain this. Most places had a reasonable list/ sale ration. even Whistler!

But N. Van is a stinker. New West was a little thin too at 15, 10, 3 and Burnaby at 26, 10, 6.

Lots of places with 4/1 list sales or worse.

Van East is still hot nearly 100% list/sell today.

An odd picture. But we do seem to be drifting into a new pattern here...sales are still low. Listings were low, but are starting to pick up. Lets see if it becomes a trend.
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Victoria sits at 12 MOI.

Here is the graph

Here is the blog for Victoria- look at how September is shaping up.

Some numbers

West Van 12 New, 6 Changes, 1 Sale

North Vancouver 24 New, 8 changes, 12 Sales

Van West 71 New, 24 Changes, 18 Sales

Whistler 5 New, 1 Change, 0 Sales.

BTW- ear on the ground from some agent friends, off-shore owners may be net sellers. Lost of them have listed and sold. Maybe the high prices + high CAD were too tempting...or maybe the tax/strata- fix and repair daily was too much.

In any case this would seem to against the urban myth prevalent now.

It's not worth the effort!

Just got North Shore Numbers. Some bears must be coming down from the mountains for a few snacks before hibernation.

West Van (all types)

11 New Listings, 4 Price changes and 2 sales - one sale was for 30% above listings..huh!

North Van (all types)

17 New Listings, 18 Price changes and 3 sales.

Van West (all)

60 new listings, 2 back on the market, 22 price changes, 19 sales.

What's with the title? - well dear seller, if you have a Million $-plus house and it hasn't sold for many months, a $10K deduction won't have them breaking the doors down!

City of Vancouver and the Olympic village

So we are waiting to see how much the COV will be on the hook if they don't cover their costs on the Olympic Village.

Estimates go as high as $1 Billion. They apparently knew for years (2007) that the project would be in trouble and the City's investment would be at risk, but I didn't hear anything until the credit crisis conveniently came along in late 2008 to blame it on.

There was a secret deal (that's what in camera means) to lend $100 Million to the project in fall of 2008, and now we are in it up to $1 Billion.

That is unfortunately the down-side of PPP (Public Private Projects) the Private gets all the profits and the Public walks off with the losses. What else should we expect when we get Wall Street financiers and Developers signing contracts with council-folk who spend most of their time wondering how to increase hockey hours on the local ice-rinks. Lamb to be sheered.

The question is - who advised the CITY? Which law firms or financial institutions-anyone know. What is their liability in all this?

How much is $1 Billion? Well hopefully the city won't lose that much, but to put it in perspective, it is one year's total annual revenue +/- or it is double the current outstanding debt.

As for our debt rating, I checked and the city's short term debt seems to be holding up well - comparable to the banks but that could change

It is truly a scandal as Gary Mason says and if it bites the COV badly then we can look forward to reduced services.