Sunday, June 14, 2009

Some YTD numbers

For North and West Van. In case you missed them.

Source: Alan Skinner a realtor, in North Shore Homes:

Comparison of Jan-May 2009 v Jan-May 2008

North Van

Detached: 17% less homes old. Average price down -18%
Townhouses: 7% less T/h sold. Average prices down -12%
Condos: 23% less Condos sold. Average prices down -16%

Inventory down a few % from 2008.

West Van

Detached: 30% less homes sold. Average prices down -21%
Townhouses: 70% less T/h sold. Average price down -29%
Condos: 27% less condos sold. Average price down -21%.

Inventory almost the same.

Both these areas had reached psychotic levels of over-pricing and I think they could come under further pressure if the economy and stock market falter.


  1. This is a dangerous market right now. And, I think the riskiest neighborhoods are the ones which have yet to see price drops as large as the North Shore. The Commercial Street area comes to mind, $800,000 for an eighty year old house with a 33' lot on a busy street in a mixed (not bad, not great) neighborhood- I'm not sure that makes sense? Even, if it has been re-modeled.

    And, similar to what Fish said in the last thread: if you have a $500,000 mortgage (man: that seems like a lot of debt), you better hope that you don't lose your job- or, that your wife loses her's, for that matter. Well, at least from what I hear the government is spending a lot of borrowed money to seismically upgrade schools and other buildings, so that should keep some tradesmen working- but, will it be enough?

    I just think people in this town have become desensitized to the- extremely- high cost of Vancouver housing. And, more importantly, to the huge debt that comes with its purchase- even with a substantial down payment.

    In many ways, the macro-economic condition is starting to make this "spring bounce" feel more like the eye of the hurricane. Oh well...No matter what happens, without a doubt, this is going to be an eventful and interesting year- one way or the other.

  2. Thanks for the post Fish. You keep me hanging in there.

  3. i think i smell the stock market faltering...