Sunday, January 17, 2010

Somehow I missed this....

VREA's prediction of how RE could could unfold in the near future:

This is more or less how I see it unfolding too. However I also thought that the bounce in 2009 (caused by lower prices and lower interest rates and the CMHC) would not cause a rebound to new highs, which now seems to be the case.

It seems our RE market is more highly correlated with that of China and HK than with the US, who would have thought it.

The ironic thing though is, while the average price has hit new highs, we are at a higher MOI than we were when we were last at these lofty levels. The market also feels a lot less tight, with more listings coming every day, and less frenzy in the market (except at the end of December).

But as I said before, until we get the Olympics out of the way, we wont know what to make of the numbers.


  1. I wouldnt be so hasty to call that we have beaten previous highs.

    From REBGV

    December 2009 Benchmark: $766,816

    April 2008 Benchmark: $771,321

    Even if we do get higher, there is almost a 2 year gap. Lop off a couple of % for inflation and I dont think we have beaten the high in April 2008. Idealy I would wait for the Teranet data to confirm we have beaten last years peak as I consider it to be the best method.

    And I wouldnt be so sure that we are going to be higher this month. Sell list on robs blog was 28.8%. Could be the olympics, but 1 more week like this and listings could top 10000.

    It's like you said though, no one really knows what this means untill the dust settles after the big party. This is a once-in-a-lifetime event so its effect on things like RE is pretty much unknown.

  2. Davers- you are right. The average has made a new high, but not the benchmark.

    Double top? or another pop?

    Lets wait and see. Almost no-one is left bearish, it's like last year never happened.

  3. Fish, the buble theory has failed as far as Vancouver RE is concerned, we have to admit it. Wr have reached a permanent high plateau of prices here...
    But anecdodal evidence suggests that RE is still red hot in Vancouver. I talk to builders and they still going knocking at doors asking owners if they want to sell, so they can tear down and build a new house and sell it for a profit to a rich chinese. What people forget is that we are being overwhelmed by rich chinese influx of immigrants. I dont see RE going down for the foreseable the future. Drive near any school at recess time in vancouver and see how dominant the asian pattern is, it is proof that hot money is still flowing here.

  4. Interesting to look at Will's Stats:

    This year's listings started at 2008 levels, but now are climbing fast--faster than 2008. Will be interesting to see how the plots look 3 months from today...

  5. Anon 12:09 (or shoud I say Thompson)

    I think I have read this comment before. It was on RET by Thompson. Somehow, the blog does not allow me to copy paste the link. It was made on Dec 10, 2009 at 11:16 PM. Go figure.

  6. Anon- yes it is possible that we have reached a permanent high. Nothing can be discounted. The strength of the market has been something to behold, and there are a lot of rich people in China. If only 1/1000 came here we would be cleaned out.

    Panda. It started with increasing inventory in 2008. We will have to see if this is mopped up by feverish buyers too or will be left on the shelf to get mouldy.

  7. I told you so.....
    people are desperate to get a house, and ther eis so much chinese money comming in, we are priced out forever, I am going to live in arizona.

  8. Anon- over the last week, the list sale in West Vancouver has been about 10-15%.

    9 listings yesterday, 1 price redution , no sales.

    So the wave hasn't crossed the Burrard Inlet yet :)

  9. And today 10 listings, 2 price reductions and 3 sales.