Friday, December 3, 2010

The bears are out in the OK

Central OK

Median SF Home prices are down 10.5% from this time last year

The days to sell is up to 330 days from 64 days last year

Median apartment prices are down 11.0%

21.5 MOI

North OK and Shuswap show such a big swings in the median that I suspect it is from the small sample size (40% drop in one case) so they should be ignored.

22 MOI for the North OK

27 MOI for Shuswap


Fraser Valley

8.3 MOI

from the FVREB report

SFH benchmark price November $504,848 down 0.2% MOM. Up 1.4% YOY.

Benchmark townhouses in November was $319,623, up 0.2% MOM. Up 1.2% YOY

Benchmark apartment $235,842 Up 0.7% MOM. Up 2.7% YOY

Basically flat prices YOY

+ see my previous post re YTD HPI for Vancouver. Have a great week-end everyone.


  1. How RE can destroy wealth:

  2. Man that NY Times story is surreal.

    I don't see how the Okanagan is going to pull out of that tailspin. If I were thinking of buying in the Okanagan, I'd start looking around sometime next year. There are probably some deals out there, but there's no rush.

  3. I think you have the wrong numbers for Central OK single family residential. Still bad, but not as bad as 330 days on market.

    It is down 2.98% from last year and averaging 89 days on the market. See page 9.

    And there is over 12 MOI. Page 5.

    It's down about 11% from the peak in the spring.

    Interesting that the OMREB's new release doesn't even mention YOY of MOM price changes:

  4. Fatjay- look at page 9 and I think you will see that my Days to sell and price drop for SFH is correct.

    As for the the over-all MOI.. 4413/210 = 20+

    please come back and correct me if you still think I got it wrong.


  5. You're looking at acreages. I think that OMREB publishes single family detached residential stats simply under "Residential".

    Page 9 shows the Residential median price down 2.98% to 407,500. It was as high as 461,000 in April/May.

    Page 5 shows the Residential MOI as 12.88. 104 sales and inventory of 1340.

    The market here is cold, but there were still a bunch of irrational buyers at the end of October through the start of November. A couple houses I was watching that have been sitting for upwards of 300 days sold within 5% of ask. Eg. Listed at 700k in Feb. Sold for 670k the last week of Oct.

    I think these are the last gasps, and they might continue through January. I'm expecting a flood of listings in Feb/March and then we'll see what happens.

  6. Ok fatjay-

    For the Central OK OVER-ALL

    Page 3 total sales 210
    Total listings 4413
    You work out the MOI

    Agreed residential is 12. However in all my mOi for all areas-it is always over-all

    You are right with the SFH Day on the market/median drop. I was looking at 'House/acreage' (which to me sounds like the same as residential in a semi-rural area) but apparently it is a sub-group.

  7. Agreed about the over all MOI. I was just pointing out that detached is over 12, which is pretty brutal.

    Around Kelowna most people have already clued in that condos are going to get hit hard, but a lot of people still seem to think that houses will be fine - sustained MOI over 12 doesn't indicate fine to me. It's been over 9 all year, even when the market was hot in the spring, and it's been around 12 since June.

    Of course, compared to MOI of over 20 for condos and townhouses it doesn't sound too bad ;)

    Bottom line is that the market is brutal, but it has remained fairly sticky since June. I don't expect it to go into panic mode unless it is flooded with new listings in the new year. North OK is similar and Shuswap is a little worse.

  8. @fatgay, Kelowna is looking to be following the pattern of Sacramento about 4 years ago. MOI there was high but "blood on the streets" never really happened. Just lots of inventory and lots of "flippers in trouble" so to speak. I would expect Kelowna to see price drops for the next 3-4 years. 1% average MOM drops over that time will add up to significant price reductions.

    If I were a bear in Kelowna I'd be salivating right now.

  9. I go to Kelowna about once a month on business. Every time I go I see the same houses for sale. Oh, once in awhile the For Sale sign isn't there. Then the subsequent trip, there it is!(relisted at a lower price) (Ok, once in awhile the place is actually sold, but not too often).

    I have a friend who likes to brag that her parents custom-built a "million dollar mansion" up in "Kelowna's most compelling subdivision" as a business venture. It's been on the market for oh, 18 months now? I told her "Gee, it's obviously not worth a million bucks since no one's willing to pay that much for it. And I would hardly call it a "mansion" since it's only got 3 bedrooms."
    I don't think she likes me very much anymore. lol

  10. BTW- in case you guys wonder who is buying the really expensive homes, apart from the wealthy is often the guys who run the penny pump and dumps.

    this site exposes them and most of them are based in our fair city. Canada has lax security laws anyway and BC is a joke. So many pump and dumps, so few prosecutions.