Tuesday, November 27, 2012

A small bone for the bears

OK so sales have been pretty strong and inventory is going into the pre-Christmas decline and bears everywhere are growling. 

Was that it? Where is the new strength coming from? 

I am not sure. Maybe there has been some loosening by the banks and the economic numbers out of China have reversed the year-long decline and have started to move up and there is more optimism out of the US too with firming of housing there..

Maybe these are all playing into it.

On top of all that, we have lost Carney and the next B of C Governor may turn out to be a complete Greenspan clone pumping gas for the speculators..

Here is a small bone. We have long been compared to San Diego. We are both on the Ocean, are scenic and have both attracted a large number of Eastern retirees.

San Diego was rock solid while RE in the rest of the US fell. So solid in fact that many said it was destined to hold it's ground and not drop. But when it did budge, it sure budged...

http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/SanDiegoChart-940x511.jpg


12 comments:

  1. Another interesting factoid about San Diego. Population growth was increasing through its bust and rents increased roughly at the rate of inflation.

    If you're looking for comparisons I would expect rents to increase even as the wheels come off sales.

    ReplyDelete
  2. 1. The number of international students have climbed up since the introduction of the 3-year work visas in 2008. And after one year of Canadian Experience, they can apply for PR status.

    2009 stats reflected 39,550 foreign students in Metro Vancouver alone.
    http://mbc.metropolis.net/assets/uploads/files/TROtherVancouver_factsheet3_final.pdf

    Today, 50,000 is a conservative educated guess.
    UBC & SFU around 20k
    public schools at 10k (source:bctf)
    others (BCIT, Kwantlen, Douglas, Capilano, + private colleges)




    ReplyDelete
  3. 2. The number of Americans with dual citizenship are making their way back in droves for cheaper tertiary education and universal health care.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The very frustrating about Vancouver market is that, no one, I mean absolutely no one really knows who is buying. Even main stream media has started saying that market is a buyer's market and prices expected to stay flat, or fall slightly; and people still buying these shacks.

    The prices in Vancouver West, West Vancouver and even North Vancouver are still staggering. Who is shelling out 1million plus for the kind of shacks they are selling in North Van. Who in the right mind would do that?

    ReplyDelete
  5. 3. HAM is still there, though may take the form of untaxed "gifts" or other forms. India central bank has capped the overseas property investment at $200,000 per person per year. Chinese citizens can remit $50k per person per year; however, there is no limit so long as they apply to the local State Administration of Foreign Exchange for written approval beforehand.

    ReplyDelete
  6. "OK so sales have been pretty strong and inventory is going into the pre-Christmas decline and bears everywhere are growling."

    Ben Rabidoux (based on Paulb's numbers) said sales of around 1750 units for November in Van (on VCI). 25% less than Nov/11, lowest in 12 years except 2008.

    Maybe my gloating sounds like growls...:-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ano, keep posting what numbers you have. If we all keep a lookout diligently, no obscene surprises will spring out hopefully.

      Delete
    2. oops .. that's me, another reader. Thanks.

      Delete
  7. Replies
    1. That last number should be 123

      Delete
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