Thursday, May 23, 2013

Bears in disarray??

Looking around the RE blogosphere, I sense an air of despondency.

One very useful site has gone off the air, another is hardly posting. Both are big losses to the bear community. Reading the posts on the various RE sites left open I see the same thing...'why isn't the crash happening already??'

Even while the crescendo of news and opinions all around the world is getting louder about our RE bubble and the consequences of it's bursting, one good list/day and we feel deflated. Deja Vu all over again. Once again a small drop in the market will be met with buyers and we will be off to another steroid (cheap money) induced high.

However this is how tops are made. If this is really the top, and we will only know in hindsight, they come not with a bang and a fanfare but they slip in almost unnoticed while everyone is waiting for the bell to ring or another leap up-wards. They come in disbelief.

We have a long way to go to get back to sanity.

Lets look at two listings today for an example of where we are. Both of these are court-ordered sales, something I would not wish on anyone. I chose them because I suspect the Realtor must have priced them down aggressively to try and sell them to get the owner off the hook.

Here is one in Burnaby priced at $828K - MLS V989801

Here is another in Richmond priced at $799K V958124

You can decide yourselves what a pre-foreclosure property like these should be priced for. In Vancouver these are regarded as reasonable prices.

This is one of hundreds of foreclosures I found in Las Vegas which sells for less than half the above two.


  1. Wonder how much the CMHC is on the hook for those two?

  2. If everyone is expecting a US type crash it will not happen. The market will melt down slowly. As Garth says people will eat cat food before going into forclosure.

  3. Not sure about despondent -- but I'm definitely feeling bored. Another day and another MSM stalwart is proclaiming a Canadian crash is in the wings. It's hardly exciting like it was a couple of years ago, and meanwhile the market is moving too slowly to follow with much enthusiasm. All there is to do is wait.

  4. Ask yourself: would I rather be a bear sitting on cash waiting for a downturn or a highly indebted bull who is trying to sell in this market?

    No need to despair, rents are cheep, US equities performing well; enjoy life, while the highly stressed hope for a price appreciation they NEED.

    Take a look at Craigslist, there is a ton of no money down and owner needs to sell adds, hints of both scraping the bottom of the barrel and desperation. Personally know of previously bullish people trying to buy down to reduce their mortgages, weird thing is they don't realize that they are now bears. It's clear that their behaviour is preceding their sentiment. So far they are having no luck.

    Helicopter Ben's testimony yesterday suggested that the wise move is to position yourself for a sell- off in bonds and the corresponding increase in interest rates. And don't discount the affect that the combination of lower prices and much lower volume is having on the market--- bubbles require an ever increasing amount of investment for continued expansion.

    Want to feel better? Just drive down 200th in Langley and observe the plethora of developments being flogged.

  5. Things are not that good, people are up to their eyeballs in debt. Just looking at what you can get in LV for half the price shows me how much of a problem we have. I have a few friends who bought condos in 09 and 2010. Their places are worth at least 20% under what they paid. They are trying to sell to break even. Its probably not going to happen. These are the kind of young couples that are supposed to upsize and buy townhomes and detached houses. Sales are at a ten year low and inventory keeps piling up. Its going to get alot worse, I figure over the next two years we will see bigger and bigger drops. R/E collapses take time. If the feds were smart they would of popped this a long time ago. Since they haven't, there will be alot more problems down the road. Too many are relying on their homes as a retirement plan. There's hardly anyone left to buy.

  6. That's better


    410 new
    225 price change
    218 sold

    7814 detached
    9403 attached

  7. Very Informative! This blog is great source of information which is very useful for me. Thank you very much for sharing this!

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  8. Taking a look in one of the key neighborhoods in Rmd, I noticed something very strange. As of a couple of days ago, there were > 40 detached homes for sale in Terra Nova. Most of these have been sitting there collecting dust for 6-12 months (or longer) This morning, that number suddenly dropped to 11 (according to and Anyone care to chime in on this? Was this due to:

    - a massive wave of buyers suddenly appearing out of nowhere post-election?
    - a coordinated effort on part of all these disgruntled sellers to cancel their listings en masse?
    - a data error?

  9. The quality of posts/comments in said bear blog is low, borderline evil. Here is the first blog post after a long siesta.

    "Needless to say, the old couple has no other assets than their rapidly depreciating house, so they are panicking."

  10. Shhh... Don't tell the bulls we are emotional. Spring is a tough time for a bear, we wake up grumpy. The market is active, houses sell and bulls talk their BS. We just have to drop the blogs, get out enjoy the good weather and come back with a cuppa in the fall.

  11. numbers. Not bad at all.

    435 new
    259 price change
    201 sold
    7825 detached
    9432 attached

    1. Lately, PaulB's sales seem to be relatively weaker than yours, just a casual observation with no quantitative analysis.

      Would this suggest that sales are weaker in the core than in the periphery?

    2. I haven't had time to analyse the sales.

      However Paul's list/sales for Friday = 0.43
      Mine = 0.46

      Usually they track each other even closer than that.

      So not a lot of difference and too small to dig too deep.

      The search parameters are different between Paul's number and mine , so what you suggest is possible.

    3. Thanks Fish

  12. It's all good


    417 new
    176 price change
    168 sold
    7850 detached
    9460 attached

  13. What the heck?



    1. hmm... maybe just for a day. Will see tomorrow and so..

      By the way, thanks for the info., Fish10.

  14. buy a house in the middle of a desert, live in the gambling, sex trade capital of North America with an incredibly high violent crime rate and no real industry outside of hospitality...


    buy a house in one of the most fertile valley's in western Canada, near the ocean, mountains, a world class city and a diverse economy - that, union influence aside, promises opportunity and encourages entrepreneurial pursuits...

    Yeah - kind of the same thing, I guess...

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