Sales are definitely on a little up-tick in Vancouver. It remains to be seen if this is a temporary phenomenon of pent-up demand from the election jitters or a more significant trend. It may also be buyers jumping in on rate fears, forgetting that while higher rates mean they can afford less house, house prices also drop if you give them a chance!!
There seems to be selective HAM buying at the higher end which I think is 'getting money out while we can'. Probably most of the recent higher sales from what I can gauge has gone to HAM buyers. However HAM is not responsible for the recent up-tick in over-all sales, only for the higher end sales.
So far Flaherty's entreaties and reining in the CMHC has taken housing off the boil but has not brought about a significant correction.
Outside of Vancouver, we are in full out correction mode in some places.
Take a look at the Gulf Islands for example.
Here is the June report of one well known Gulf Island Realtor:
2-7 years to sell some properties after major price reductions.
And here is a report of another Realtor for houses sold in 2012. While the report is 6 months old, it will give you an idea of what happens when we are in a buyer's market. We are not in a buyer's market in Vancouver yet. If you listen to the report you will see and hear what it looks like.
For now we wait and see who wins the cat and mouse game. Interest rates have taken a significant jump up. HAM of course are oblivious to Interest rate changes, as are big buyers, which means the average could be skewed again at month's end.
How this bear market could end - *Preface: Explaining our market timing models* We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "*Ultimate Market Timing Mod...
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