Inventory is not going away like 2010

Could this be the year? I feel like a pregnant elephant with a gestation period of 660 to 760 waiting to give birth.

We have been down this road to affordable housing so many times, just to be scuppered by Government shenanigans or 'emergency' rates that fuel speculation, that one dare not hope.

Even if this is the real thing, we may not see price reductions immediately, product will have sit out there for a while and swelter until those that need to sell start discounting.

Meanwhile in a sign of the lunatic times we have in RE here, I saw a house listed for $9 Million+ in West Van which hadn't sold in 100 days, then jack it's price up to $12 big ones and then a little later drop it to $10 M. ( I am rounding off since a few hundred thousand makes no difference). What is clear is that no-one is sure what the 'value' of this house is.

That can be said for all our housing right now. What is the value? The rental value? The carrying cost? What someone with bags of cash from out East or the Far East will pay for it? Who knows? we have surely reached the mania stage of the bubble even as inventory is piling up there are buyers in full panic-mode.

Here is an excellent essay on bubbles and what may lay ahead for the US and China in the year ahead. Of course we are mentioned. Near the end, there is a paragraph about our fine city and helicopter-buyers.

I really suggest you spend five minutes reading it this week-end.