Thursday, September 1, 2011

Well we missed the drop last month and we got it wrong this month!

Thanks to Larry for first being first out with the numbers

SFH moved up 2% from last month.

In our poll last month we thought the prices would go up and the fell hard. This time we decided they would fall hard and they had a little jump up.

SFH sales are down a little from July (about 8%) and we are at over 6 MOI.

However I would be lying if I said that the numbers aren't a disappointment. I had expected them to be flat at worst, and slightly down was my hope. Not that a few % up or down makes any difference after such a huge run-up but it would have been the psychological effect of having two months down, and perhaps it would have kept a few young couples from getting into a mountain of debt at these levels with the promise of more sanity coming.

Warning spin coming here: I think the numbers are being skewed by the huge buys on the Westside and West Van by certain off-shore buyers.

Well not much we can do except dive in or wait. The periphery is weak. Vancouver is still defying the odds.

Posted by at

6 comments:

  1. LarrySeptember 1, 2011 at 9:48 AM

    If coffee talk is worth the beans from which the aromatic elixir is made then recent conversations with Realtor types would have suggested a slight slowing as well.

    Oh well - pass the low mortgage rate sugar please :)

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  2. Fish10September 1, 2011 at 10:52 AM

    Yup lots of sugar still from the rates, to the CMHC monster, to the sweat and sour version that is skewing the averages up-wards.

    However hope lives eternal and if we continue with lower sales and higher MOI, we should resume the downside. That's the theory anyway.

    Thanks again for all your timely info.

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  3. daversSeptember 1, 2011 at 11:04 AM

    I really doubt most potential buyers are watching the monthly numbers as close as we are (sad as that is) and I also doubt most realtors would tell potential buyers that the market dropped in July unless they asked.

    Psychology won't really start coming into play (IMHO) until the media starts reporting these drops on a regular basis and doing stories about the poor market. I dont see that happening until a crash is well underway (~4 months of drops, prices down ~8%, sales slower than usual).

    For the time being July was a blip unless we see more drops in the fall.

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  4. frankSeptember 1, 2011 at 11:15 AM

    I think the drop has just been delayed until September. I am not concerned.

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  5. AlexcanuckSeptember 1, 2011 at 5:46 PM

    Do we have a median to work with as well? That helps to show up any skew from a few high end buys.

    ReplyDelete
  6. fish10September 1, 2011 at 7:45 PM

    Alex

    We will have to wait for the REBGV for more complete numbers.

    ReplyDelete

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