Saturday, April 11, 2009

Be careful what you wish for...


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Ok Folks this needs to be said - we are in a terrible mess.

I know most of you read this blog hoping for clues on the direction of RE and patiently waiting for it to drop decisively. Well we are well on the way - down 15% form the peak and huge drops, 25% or more, in some areas like West Van and Port Moody.

But take a look at this graph and it will show you that Vancouver RE may be the least of our worries:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SeDhcl0B7GI/AAAAAAAAI3k/-1XHGdKyyZU/s1600-h/g7industrialproduct.jpg

I have never seen a graph like that. If anyone had shown that to me a year ago, I would have said they were crazy.

That is as near a total collapse in world-wide industrial production, as I had ever thought possible without a world war or pandemic.

Look at Japan!! Industrial output is crashing there - add that to an aging population and a Debt/GDP ratio well over 100% (with the GDP dropping rapidly) and the Japanese miracle has come to an abrupt end. Even Toyota, arguably the best car maker in the world is slashing production.

Anyway, back to my main point. I hope what lies ahead is not so dire, that even though RE is dropping, few bears will be left unscathed to enjoy it!

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Yeah, yeah. I know I said I wouldn't mention it again. But I put up a poll on the right hand side. It is self-explanatory.

5 comments:

  1. Few solds for West Van last month from my realtor

    List Price: $1,199,000 Sold Price: $1,040,000 Original Price: $1,518,000

    List Price: $950,000 Sold Price: $880,000 Original Price: $1,495,000

    List Price: $1,349,000 Sold Price: $1,280,000 : $2,850,000

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  2. Re: the graph.
    All I can think of to say is "UH OH!" You're right, I think we're in BIG trouble here, forget house prices!

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  3. That's gotta be the scariest graph I've seen yet....sure makes you shake your head at those poor suckers jumping into the market now.

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  4. Emailed my MP, no response yet.

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  5. That graph would be representative of the major world economies hitting a brick wall.

    As I said to my wife last night "this is not the beginning of the end, it is the end of the beginning".

    Green shoots be damned...

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