Saturday, April 4, 2009

Bear Anxiety

Ok Folks I read a lot of bear anxiety in the blogosphere about the up-tick in sales for March and the missing deluge of listings.

This is despite the drop in prices, which in some areas has been nothing less than a slide off a cliff. (what else can you can YOY drops of 25-38%)

BTW a 25% drop in prices erases a previous 30% gain. The bubble is deflating much faster than it blew up.

Can I give the bears complete reassurance. No. If I was that smart I would be sitting on the beach in Monaco with George Soros, instead of writing this obscure blog. However consider this graph.

Where do you think we are on it??


  1. PS when you click on the link make sure you click on the 'full size' button above it or just click on the graph.

  2. Fish,

    Nice graph - well illustrated for the bubble development process. I would think the price downhill is still long way to go, though the current money-printing frenzy may ease the downward acceleration a bit.

    Back to the question of the assessed value, I see some value in it. Especially for condos that are built with similarity in the community. Following list shows how I use the assessed value:

    1. condo A and B are neighbors.
    2. both condo A and B are assessed for $300K at 2008
    - I assume they are very similar in the value.
    3. condo A sold at March 2008 for $330K
    - it seems the market value at that time.
    - this would be reassured if there are more condos sold for similar price at similar time. If the other sales are not at the similar time, you'll have to do an intra/extra-polation.
    4. I known the benchmark of condo price in my area has dropped 15% from March 2008 to March 2009.
    5. I would guess the condo B's current market price should be around $330K * (100-15)% = $280.5K.
    6. Given the market downturn with the my own estimate on the velocity and acceleration, I would like to pay the condo B for another 5% off the March 2009 value on April 2009, which is about $265K.

    Of course, the step 2 and 3 may not be accurate, given the nature of the individual assessment and the purchase. But this at least provide one way to estimate the market price before you have full information available. This should work for apartments, townhouses, and some cases for houses too.