Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Response to a comment

Anon (wish you would pick a name) said :

One more thing adds to the spring bounce. In the chinese media. They report shipload of chinese investors are buying. Canadian dollar has gotten a lot cheaper. Overseas chinese investor has more wiggle room than us even if the market drop another 20%.
If you earn a paycheck here in vancouver. Various taxes have already eaten 40%. I feel it is harder and harder to get by.I myself already cut one of the family cars. So the government has one less thing to tax me. Family finance really doesn't really add up.
If anyone interested, I can let you know how much I spend and how much i earn every month. As I think a lot of people are in the same boat like me trying to make ends meet. However, both political parties do not seem to get it.
Fish, I can see you have soften your bearness. I guess this is the reality out there. I've also given up my hope for affordable housing in Vancouver. We will probably buy the end of this year as all my reasons to delay the purchase have proven "wrong".Good health to all.

Lots of stuff there....

Firstly I agree, when folks come from areas where they haven't paid taxes it makes it tough for the locals to compete after paying 30-40% in taxes. It's nice to get their money here, but it also pushes up housing costs for those who live and pay the taxes here. It is certainly a double edged sword.

China is such a behemoth , that I have no doubt it does and could have an even bigger effect on Vancouver house prices, just as US buyers/investors were the main drivers of Whistler's explosion over the last ten years. However I haven't seen a huge influx of wealthy Chinese investors as of yet.

So I have become a 'softer' bear'...eh? :)

When I started this blog a year a couple of years ago, I was a rip-roaring no holds barred bear. The price inflation in RE was just crazy and I tried to warn folks to be careful.

We went higher and dropped down and are now back to the levels when I started the blog, or down a few %, but 5 year fixed mortgages have dropped so much that affordability has improved. Am I just as bearish?

Well I am worried. Not worried, like you, that I may have missed the (tiny) window of opportunity to buy and prices will now sky-rocket again. I am worried about the over-all economy.

This is no ordinary recession.

- In previous recessions I didn't know anyone who had lost their job and couldn't find one straight away. This time, I have several friends and family out of work and looking.
- I told you that once the election was over, we would learn the truth about the economy and cuts would come. Well today we learnt that there will be some cuts as Provincial government income drops. e were also told that the economy will contract 3% in BC instead of the previously forecast 0.8%. Big difference!

Why is it that our governments never save for a rainy day, but spend every penny in good times and then have to cut spending at the worst possible time, right into the teeth of a recession?

Anyway anon. I think you WILL see lower house prices. I don't think we are out of this mess by a long way. The only reason we have not collapsed, is because the Central banks are throwing everything they have at this. Low rates and even buying auto loans from lenders. The ship is still listing badly despite all the baling.

Good health to us all, indeed. I have learnt first hand how important that is, more important than whether you own or rent or timing RE.

This will be my week-end post and I will add to if anything comes to mind.

..........................................................................................

How bad could things get?

Well here's how bad they are in some parts of the US


House-Price Drops Leave More Underwater by Ruth Simon and James R. Hagerty Monday, May 18, 2009 Wall Street Journal

The downturn in home prices has left about 20% of U.S. homeowners owing more on a mortgage than their homes are worth, according to one new study, signaling additional challenges to the Obama administration's efforts to stabilize the housing market.

The increase in the number of such "underwater" borrowers comes amid signs that falling prices are making homes more affordable for first-time buyers and others who have been shut out of the housing market. But falling prices also make it more difficult for homeowners who get into financial trouble to refinance or sell their homes, and for others to take advantage of lower interest rates.

For instance, fewer will qualify to take advantage of a key component of the Obama administration's plan to stabilize the housing market. Under the plan, announced in February, as many as five million homeowners whose loans are owned or guaranteed by government-controlled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can refinance their mortgages, but only if the mortgage loan is a maximum of 105% of the home's value. Government officials are considering an increase in that limit.

"It's a question that we're looking at," said James Lockhart, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates Fannie and Freddie. Real-estate Web site Zillow.com said that overall, the number of borrowers who are underwater climbed to 20.4 million at the end of the first quarter from 16.3 million at the end of the fourth quarter. The latest figure represents 21.9% of all homeowners, according to Zillow, up from 17.6% in the fourth quarter and 14.3% in the third quarter.

"What's going on here is that you don't have any markets that have turned around and you have new markets, like Dallas, that have joined the ranks" of communities where home prices have fallen, said Stan Humphries, a Zillow.com vice president. Borrowers who owe far more than their home is worth may also be less likely to participate in another part of the government's housing plan, which provides incentives for mortgage companies to modify loans to make payments more affordable.

Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist, said borrowers who owe 30% more than their homes are worth are far more likely to walk away from their property than those who owe just 5% or 10% more and expect prices to rebound. More than one in 10 borrowers with a mortgage owed 110% or more of their home's value at the end of last year, according to First American CoreLogic. There are some recent indications that the housing market could be beginning to stabilize.

(stuff deleted)

% of Homes with Negative Equity

Las Vegas 67%
Stokton Ca 51%
Modesto Ca 50%
Reno 48%
Vellejo Ca 46%
Phoenix 42%
Orlando 42%

Over-all US 21.9%

102 comments:

  1. California is near bankrupt. We are a high spending province too. Maybe we are heading in the same direction.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Fish, I so appreciate all your comments, and I couldn't agree with you more. I think you bring a very balanced and insightful perspective to the real estate mess, but especially the economy. Any chance you read Robert Prechter (Elliott Wave)? For those of us who have been waiting forever to buy a house, this current rally is frustrating, but for those who have been paying close attention, it is not unexpected. Think of the magnitude of the bull run we have been experiencing. It is unprecedented. Does it not make sense that the dead cat bounce that follows its decline should echo its strength? It's possible we may be in for a few more months of market rallies, but check your charts, people. Dead cat bounces happen, and when they're done, it's a looong way down. Indeed, Fish, I'm much more worried about the decline than the rally!
    GM

    ReplyDelete
  3. My husband's been laid off twice in a year due to group layoffs (ie: it wasn't personal). He's well connected and has a good resume; after the second layoff there simply wasn't steady work out there for quite some time.

    I must say, I was alarmed at how EI counted his severance package. We lost more than income, we lost benefits - and they don't leave room for that. And what of those who use severance to retrain? We're a family of four, so paying for medical/extended isn't cheap.

    We both were amazed that after, what, two decades of paying into EI, it wasn't really insurance at all. Now, fortunately, he found some contract work. But it did take 3 months first, and no EI during that time, because of how they counted the severance package. Of course, having it DID separate us from the utterly destitute, but things are rough.

    Anyway. Prices will keep coming down. It's rough times.

    ReplyDelete
  4. GM

    Did you see this from Prechter? http://tinyurl.com/pz54ry

    Zae

    Glad your husband found more work. There aren't many in this city who could sustain a prolonged period of unemployment.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Good post fish. I think the low rates are only delaying what is sure to come. It amazes me that people and the media are already talking about a bottom in the re market, just as GM closes its Oshawa plant. More layoffs are going to be a reality I'm afraid. I hope I'm wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hey Fish. I am plenty bearish, and I thought your baseball analogy was brilliant and nicely predictive.

    What data would change your mind to believing we have hit bottom? I am being devil's advocate perhaps, but what data would be convincing that the market bottom has occurred?

    Don't give me a hard time bears---Like I said, I'm bearish. But I think it could be prudent to understand what would indicate the market has truly turned.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Panda, I like Case-Shiller, m'self. Those national numbers (via Housing Analysis, the Terasen ones), have us historically bumping around at somewhere south of 80. We're still nowhere in the ballpark of trendline - somewhere up at 135ish.

    I don't even need to call bottom. But that chart has to look like a sane progression. Because it's NOT different here.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I mean that Housing Analysis links to them --
    http://www.housepriceindex.ca

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Panda

    Thanks for remmebering the baseball analogy. I think we are in the third or forth innings.

    So if we stop here - it would like the game is rained out! Do I expect it, no. Could it happen, sure.

    I'll keep you guys all informed if I see the market bottoming. Persistently low MOI, prices firming up, dropping DOM. Basically what we have seen for April continuing through the summer.

    Arwen- that's a good chart, wish it was more up-to-date.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Panda, we "hit bottom" when an investor can make a decent long-term return off a property's income stream and not rely on above-inflation capital gains to compensate for poor rental yields. Until that happens, from an investor's perspective, there are ZERO bullish signs, because a rational investor would not enter this market in the first place.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I thought the wealthy out-of-country buyer was a myth. At least they do not show up in the data: Residential Sales SummaryWhere is the media getting this info that outside buyers are a large enough force to impact the market?

    But apart from that, I agree that the recession will be have a bigger impact, sooner or later.

    ReplyDelete
  12. 67% have negative equity in Las Vegas! - I cant even get my mind around that number!

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