As usual Larry Yatter is the first one out with the numbers for average prices:
They show that detached are within a hair of the highs and apartments and attached look to have surpassed their previous highs.
Well what can we say about the graph...as I said every 'bubble bursting graph' will look different. I gave some examples in this post:
It may be that we are following the more complex top set by places like Southern California :
However I have to say, if we continue with these strong gains, then we may have to admit that a new up-trend has started...difficult though that is to believe...from these lofty levels, driven by all-time low interest rates.
I expect all Canadian cities to show gains.
Here is how it happened:
We are in the same position as places like Norway and Singapore. Norway is resource-rich, and Singapore is fiscally sound. We are probably both. When the crisis happened, interest rates world-wide crashed and many areas outside of the US and UK where banks had been completely irresponsible did not need this extra stimulus. The result was a new property boom.
The rates dropped to save banks and to help manufacturing, but what they did was reignite assets. Look at gold well over $1000 and property prices in many parts of the world started to take flight.
Some of these areas were Norway, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea and of course Canada.
Of course in the other jurisdictions they are doing something about it. In Norway they are raising interest rates specifically to cool RE. Regulators in South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore told banks they needed to tighten lending, to nip the RE bubble in the bud.
Meanwhile what are we doing? We have a few words of caution from Mark Carney but no increase in interest rates, and the Government with one eye on the next election, is INCREASING the ability of the CHMC to lend at these over-priced levels.
We are truly setting ourselves up for a crisis. Both by feeding the fire of price speculation, and encouraging folks to get into the market with very little skin in the game AND at the lowest rates in history.
We should be doing the opposite. Waiting until rates are high and likely to go down, wait until prices have fallen and then help people buy..they would be getting in at the bottom of the prices an the top for rates not vice verse.
We are just setting these folks up for failure at the slightest rise in rates, drop in value or increase in job losses.
Enough said. Lets see what November brings. The October numbers were not heartening for those waiting for more reasonable prices.
Long live the reflation trade! - *Preface: Explaining our market timing models* We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "*Ultimate Market Timing Mod...
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