Saturday, November 28, 2009

Sorry there is nothing to write guys...

The market is slow but not weak yet. There are still folks running to buy.

Larry Yatter has shown that some market have started dropping.

However nothing much will happen until all assets start to drop..Gold, Stocks and RE. What will be the catalyst? Higher interest rates or a Dubai-like black swan event.

I am heading into hibernation and probably wont put up a post until something changes, which may not be until the New Year.

11 comments:

  1. Some comments between Larry and I, on his web-site:

    http://tinyurl.com/ycyqoj9

    Our prices have truly reached lunatic proportions.

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  2. All you will be posting in 2010 is how the Spring of 2010 brought even more new highs and you will keep being a bear doing everyone reading your blog a diservice by keeping them on the sidelines.

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  3. Anon- You are obviously a new reader. In Spring of last year I posted repeatedly that the drop in prices coupled with the drop in mortgage rates had lead to a 35-40% drop in carrying costs, and readers should understand that.

    Is that bearish, sounds quite bullish to me.

    I have also said if the price chart rebounds past it's previous highs then the bear case is badly damaged.

    I have also stated again and again that while Vancouver house prices seem over-priced to me, they were UNDER_PRICED on a global scale prior to this boom and could still go higher.

    I have also stated that we have a lack of land in Vancouver and are a destination for retirees (and even gave examples) both of which should keep a floor under our prices.

    Maybe you can read through the posts before you throw stones.

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  4. AND>>>Take a look at this post, where I outline how it was the same cost to buy as it is to rent, because most bearish bloggers forget that the reduction in the loan principle should be counted as a form of savings.

    http://fishyre.blogspot.com/2009/04/here-it-is.html


    I tell it as I see it. Since then prices have gone up 10% or more, and fixed mortgage rates are slightly higher, so the numbers do not match up as well.

    Also with job insecurity and the potential for higher taxes post Olympics, I am urging caution. Make sure you can afford it. Not a bad message and one many Millions of people had wish they had been told in the US.

    However if you regard me as a perma-bear you must be confusing this blog with another one.

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  5. Prices are indeed lunatic, but people are hurling themselves into the market with wild abandon. What is the difference between now and early 2008? Prices the same (or close anyway), the economy is worse but interest rates are lower. The key question is not whether there are the fundamentals for a crash, but how committed the government is to propping up the market. That and do they have any more rabbits they can pull out of the hat to keep the market inflating.

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  6. Relax, don't expect anything drastic to happen until at least late Spring of 2010.
    Real estate moves slowly like a train, but once it changes direction, it's almost impossible to stop.

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  7. Hey Fish, if you don't have a December post in mind, it is not bad timing for the ever entertaining predictions for the new year thread :-)

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  8. Panda- predictions!?


    After you :)

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  9. Larry's numbers are out.

    Some faint hope for the bears. Even though we are a whopping $150K higher than Novmber 2008 for detached, the chart shows a tiny notch down on the MOM.

    The bubble burst graph has a very faint chance of hanging in there.

    http://www.yattermatters.com/real-estate/vancouvers-average-price-november/#more-7949

    Next month could seal the bear's fate or give a little more hope. Your guess is as good as mine.

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  10. In Nov 2008, we almost had a great depression. That is what it took to bring the prices down.

    Now we are much higher. Anyone guess what it's going to take for an encore? Probably nothing, hence if prices do drop it will be 5-10% at MOST.

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  11. Well my West Van meter was very bullish today :(

    1 new listing!
    3 price reductions.
    1 price increase!
    7 sales.

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