Thursday, July 1, 2010


Jigging is a form of fishing where the lure is moved up and down in the water until the fish strikes.

Looks like that is exactly what is happening in our RE market. A little movement up and a little down, until a buyer gives up and strikes...

We were down on detached in May but up in apartments. Now we have a reversal, down in apartments and up in detached.

These are average prices, and are from Larry Yatter...much kudos to him again for being the first out with these.

A little up and a little down - jigging. BTW- I will say it again, as I have said before, I cannot see how the B of C can raise rates. With a shaking hand and sweaty armpits they raised it 0.25% and now we have enough weakening to make them regret even that.

What we bears will need to depend on is (in no particular order):

1) Weakening economic out-look making housing even more unaffordable despite these low rates.
2) A change in investor sentiment. Two months of drops would have done it. And maybe bench-mark and median will support this. However we may have to wait another month. Even head-lines of economic weakness may bring caution.
3) A reduction in off-shore demand. Lets watch this as an indicator:

4) A retrenchment in Government spending. Harper is already talking about pulling out of deficit and you can expect Provincial cut-backs to continue too.

1 and 4 are double edge swords. Who wants RE to drop because our neighbours are losing their jobs? It would have been better to raise rates, nip the monster early and then drop rates again with the next weakness (which may be starting already)

But it was not to be. We can blame the politicians, but we want everything and they give it to us.


  1. For a preview of what could happen here- take a look at what is happening in California.

    That's 200,000 folks who will NOT be running out to by a house, even with their depressed prices.

  2. ...and this is worth reading too for all those who think speculative activity ONLY comes in 'i buy tree and my husban buy tree'

    Most of it is local and we wont even mention that RE is a significant part of the local drug trade.

  3. So they set up the biggest depression possible. Nothing to get upset about, just leave. You won't have to worry about taxes, jobs, or costs going up. Nor do you have to watch the suffering of fools or the gloating of people who profited from this mess.

    If you were responsible with debt you already paid a very high price over the last decade, and possibly for longer than that. This country is not for you. Its policies are incompatible with your values and beliefs. You don't fit in. Leave.

    I don't understand why people would torture themselves waiting for anything to change. So people will go bankrupt, so what? Why stick around to clean up after a party you didn't have? There's no reward for it. I think some people are just idiots.

    I've lived in the lower mainland most of my life. It's changed, and not for the better. I used to be a pretty laid back place. Not anymore. Now everyone is shoving egos around, mindlessly repeating how great this place is, and by extension how great they are for living here or doing whatever bullshit they do. Well guess what? Vancouver isn't great, and neither are you.

    Vancouver isn't a "world-class" city by any standard beyond international flights. It never was, and it never will be unless atomic bombs are dropped on half the major cities in the world. It's a rainy city in the Pacific Northwest that's also noteworthy for its marijuana and history of stock market frauds. Soon to be added: real estate frauds and the delusional naivety of our residents. Vancouver is a bubble that has burst.

  4. Fish10, a very good assessment of why lower mortgage rates portend a long drawn-out economic malaise and why lower rates cannot indefinitely save housing prices.

  5. Looks like we're getting a pretty flat market like I've been expecting.

  6. Yup, flat until it drops like a rock!

  7. Gotta love this ad:

    In two sentences she is trying to appeal to the over-extended couple using the in-laws to get into housing ('we will look after you'), or needing renters to make the mortgage payments or failing that the rich Chinese.