Wednesday, July 7, 2010

OKANAGAN in full-out bear country

I was waiting for the Okanagan numbers patiently and was rewarded.

Here they are

Here's what the board had to say today:

July 7, 2010 Shuswap Housing Market Shifts in Favour of Buyers
Sicamous, BC

July 7, 2010 Central Okanagan Housing Market Moves into Buyer’s Cycle
Kelowna, BC

July 7, 2010 Buyer’s Cycle Continues in the North Okanagan Market

Here are some high-lights for the Central region ie Kelowna:

1) +5.7 % more listings than last June
2) -21.7% less sales than last year.
3) 346 sales with a total of 5793 listings = 16.7 months of inventory

In the North Zone the number is 2824 listings and 130 sales = 21 MOI

In the Shushwap Zone we have 29 MOI.

These numbers are so astounding that I have checked them several times. Please feel free to confirm or refute them

Despite lots of graphs on the site, there doesn`t seem to be a mention of average price, HPI, Median price etc. I guess there are too many sub-indices and smaller communities to make it useful.

The bull sure looks to have been slaughtered and slathered in BBQ sauce and is being cooked to a nice sizzle.


  1. Fish- the MOI almost defy belief. Looks right to me. Lets see what others say.

  2. It even LOOKS bad when you visit the Okanagan-houses sitting on the market for ages. And now, price reductions. People are not very optimistic about real estate there right now. Unfortunately, I know several people in the Okanagan who are already underwater. If it goes any lower, bankruptcy will be the next step for many of them.

  3. Why bankruptcy now? Just because prices are dropping? Payments/rates are still at ridiculously low levels. Anyone who needs bankruptcy this early in the correction is likely a flipper/amatuer investor who is scared.

    Anyone who sells now is getting more money than they will for decades. And still people think this is a terrible time to sell. True bubble psychology!

  4. Ouch. It may be blasphemy but I think the Olympics did have some effect on Vancouver. We are seeing some residual relative strength being cycled through the economy but I expect this effect to wear off by the end of the summer. Then it's back to paying off debt without any windfalls.

    The rest of the province is cratering as the government balances its books. Gird yer loins!

  5. Hmm perhaps I will be able to get a nice vacation property around there afterall. I worked in Penticton for a month and liked it so much I thought it would be great if I could pick up a condo and a little boat for summer weekends. Then I found out that 200K doesnt really go much further there than it does here.

    Perhaps the crash could come sooner than I thought. Afterall, the best time to buy a vacation property is when everyone else is bailing out.

    Kinda like my desire to get a place in arizona, but the hurdles of owning in the US and the large distance make it pretty much useless to me.

  6. Average/Median prices are on page 9 of the Statistics. They don't give a month over month comparison, but they do have all the archived stats for months past.

    The Central Okanagan median price for single family residential dropped from 460k to 455k. Not much yet, but the realities of this market haven't had time to set in with sellers yet.

    Central Okanagan has "only" 11 MOI for detached residential, but 2 years for condos!

    There are a LOT of empty condos for rent as well (not so much for homes). With HST on the unsold new inventory, and as rents come down and compound the problem for overextended condo owners, condo prices could be coming down FAST!

  7. Wow. Condo sales and median prices for 2010:

    Jan 49 sales, median price 230,000
    Feb 57 sales, median price 243,500
    Mar 56 sales, median price 242,450
    Apr 77 sales, median price 240,000
    May 67 sales, median price 256,250
    Jun 50 sales, median price 227,500

    A fairly low sampling, but still... wow.

    It will be interesting to see what July/August brings.

  8. Thanks fatjay- looks like condo sellers got a sudden dose or reality in June.

    here's what I am thinking...why would anyone buy in May, at all time high prices (yes small sample and all that) when they could see inventory moving up rapidly.

    I am sure sellers were very sticky still, as they always are at the end of a big run-up...SO DON"T BUY!

    That's 67 buyers who could have got a much better deal one month later and who knows how much better in the months ahead with TWO years of inventory.

    Solution One;

    Send in the CMHC white knights to re-institute zero down, 50 year, no recourse loans.

    Solution Two:

    Direct flights from Shanghai to Kelowna International Airport


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