Friday, July 1, 2011

Saved by the Bell!

I said in this post that if May was NOT the high point I would shut this blog down. The graph was too parabolic, the fundamentals were too out of line, there is nothing to comment on when one has crossed into the world of fantasy.

Inventory has been rising steadily and while we all know that prices can still rise with higher inventory as the wealthy buyers (eg HAM money) skew the market...I had decided that if the lunacy didn't at least take a break in June I would call it quits and another bear blog would have admitted defeat and closed.

Well by a hair all three averages are down this month, so unfortunately for you guys the blog keeps rolling. Condos especially have taken a big dump from April's high.

Thanks Larry for being the first one out with the data again.


  1. You've said about 8 times that "if this isn't the high I'll shut down the blog" and you didn't. This charade has gone on for a year and you have shown you will not stick to your word and clearly have a lack of credibility.

  2. No doubt you will direct us to the post that supports your allegations Chad.

  3. Please Chad, do show us!

    I gotta admit I didnt think we would be down this month. I havent been paying as much attention to the daily numbers as I used to, but I just had a feeling that we were going to have to wait a few more months for any drops. It will be interesting to see what the coming months bring.

  4. 33 SFH sales on the Sunshine Coast over the last 30 days and 635 on the market

  5. Surrey 926 SFH for sale. 109 sold last month.

    Abbotsford 61 sold, another 850 on the books.

    Squamish 219 on the lot. 7 sold.

    Richmond 851 left behind by the HAM and 102 picked up by them.

    Anyone want to work out the MOI for these?

  6. "OK so is this a capitulation post. No it isn't. But once again I am baffled by the market and once again I am willing to quit or at the least go on a hiatus from blogging IF (Chad get you pencil ready):

    If I am wrong and September shows less sales, more inventory and higher prices...I will close the blog down because there is no point commenting on an irrational market."

    Anything else you moron bears want to say before I collect my monthly rental payments from my units that have doubled in value since I bought them?

    You guys are pathetic.

  7. Just to remind you in case you haven't noticed. I came on here 3 years ago stating the market would be higher in a 2 years than it was back then.. I was right, you moronic bears were wrong. Where will the market go now? It will probably tail off a little bit and potentially see a correction, however, those that had brains bought before the spike (like when I said it was safe to buy 3 years ago.. look it up) and are sitting pretty. Like I said in my earlier post, I don't use this phrase a lot but I truly think RE bears are pathetic and potentially need to address their social standing in society before considering the economics of owning a property.

  8. Well Chad you are clearly a very wise man to have seen the economic crisis, the collapse in house prices, the Government shenanigans to boost housing and the HAM money.

    As to the quote- it was very clear. If inventory continued to rise AND prices continued to rise I would quit, because once again we would have been in fantasy land and going against basic economics and even logic, and there would be nothing more to write about.

    Those parameters were not met- prices steadied and inventory dropped, so I continued blogging. Is that the 8 times you were talking about?

    In any case I am more interested in looking forward. We all make our decisions based on how we read the future and our financial situation and risk tolerance. It hasn't made sense for me to buy for the last 2.5 years that I have been blogging, except for a brief period in 2008/2009.

    If it has for you and your property has appreciated- good for you.

    I look around Vancouver -at the Sunshine Coast, Whistler, Okanagan are now close to their 2008 prices. No gain there at all in the 3 years.

    Very little gain in many of the burbs. However a huge increase in the Westside or West Van- which is no doubt where you have all your property!

  9. Damn chad, I really havent been keeping up with these blogs.

    So you have multiple rental properties that have doubled in value since you bought them? When exactly did you buy them? And while we're at it, what kind of price/rent ratio do you get on those things?

    I had no idea you had become such a real estate baron.

  10. Fish,

    I hate to interrupt when you are on a roll, but one minor quibble:

    According to Landcor some of the areas are at more like 2006 and in some cases even 2005 prices.

    For real eye openers check out whistler detached or kelowna apartments.

  11. Hi anon- That sort of interruption is very welcome :)

    Thanks for bringing that up. Hadn't looked at Landcor for some time.

    Did you see Whistler detached and attached! Back to 2002 prices.

    They came, they saw- they didn't buy.

    I am shocked that a little dog kennel on the side of the mountain with frayed carpets, cheap finishing and surrounded by partying drunk teenagers isn't selling for many hundreds of thousands anymore.

  12. Indeed there are some areas that are, ahem, a bit weak. But hey why ruin a good "see I was right that prices are higher" argument; just narrow the scope.

  13. Picking the exact place and time of the high isn't the point.

    - Whisperer