Monday, January 30, 2012

We are 48 hours +/- away from January's Average numbers

What do I expect?

A smaller drop than December in the SFH, because we have had a couple of huge sales which will skew things, perhaps a larger drop in condos and attached is always a crap shoot.

We MAY then get a small bounce in Feb. depending on how many HAM buyers have shown up and bid up the high end of the market, since most of their New Year's buys will show up in early-mid Feb.

If they don't show up then we may just see more of the same or a flat market.

March will be the big tell. If buyers don't show up, then the MOI will quickly balloon and as Jesse has shown in his graphs, MOI correlates well with prices.

We have already seen MOI expansion and price drops outside of Vancouver....The Sunshine Coast, Victoria and the Okanagan. Now we have it in Fraser valley, with Surrey sporting some high numbers. We may be in for a bit of a shocker soon if Richmond and the Westside sales don't pick up.


  1. The down trend is becoming evident; some dynamic will have to change for it to end. Enemic population growth, high indebtedness, all-time high ownership rates, an aging population, an economy overly dependent on housing, and a changing zeitgeist are starting to weigh this market down. In addition, a diversion that does not get enough discussion is the one between SFH and condos. This widening gap, combined with the fact that the recent purchasers of multi-family new construction are way under-water is going to freeze the market.

    That said, the collapse of many other real estate bubbles teaches us that this is going to be a long painful process. In other words, I do not expect to see any real estate opportunities in the GVRD for at least five to seven years.

  2. Is it wrong that I'm really excited for these numbers because I think they will be pretty bad? I have only been watching the market for less than 4 years and already I'm starting to get antsy waiting for the crash.

    I'm pretty convinced that it's coming, the question now is how hard and how fast.

  3. anon- the drop that happens WITHOUT an external event, like 2009- eg a drop that happens from it's own unsustainable weight is more significant.

    Davers- no you are not evil.

    No SFH in West Van today. Why hast thou forsaken us... oh HAM?