Saturday, June 9, 2012

A new name to add to RE sanity

David Madani, Ben Rabidoux, Garth Turner and now David Lepoidevin.

Here he is on BNN

How can anyone argue with his facts. How can anyone not think that there will be a day of reckoning coming to us, no less than than that which has come to the US or Spain.


  1. Excellent comments from this fellow. BNN is pretty brave putting it up when every other ad is for a bank.

  2. Met DL in person on the Money Show last year.
    Great stuff! Sold off all my Canadian banks' shares last year.

  3. more "Ominous signs from China"!

    What'll happen to the 70%-90% "sold" presales highrise projects in the LML? Will the buyers in China walk away from their down-payment deposits? Or stage a protest and demand their money back when our market tanks?

  4. Don't forget Pacifica Partners.

    Though I normally refrain from this type of self-promotion/marketing, feel free to view our most recent charts in our "Canadian Housing Bubble Chartbook".

    Keep up the great work Fish. I have been following you for a few years now, as I have several friends and family who own in the Fraser Valley. Not to mention our own offices.

    We've been sounding the alarm for some time now and have counseled our own clients to be very conservative as far as Canadian RE is concerned.

    We've also mentioned that with the CAD being near par, and the difference in valuation between US vs Canadian RE, it may be far better for local RE investors to sell Canada and buy the US (tax issues do apply).


    1. Good link Naveen. Nothing wrong with self-promotion if it adds value, which this does.

      Looked at this graph and was surprised that Toronto still looked good after their huge run up, of course we look the worst:

  5. Was looking through land listings on the Sunshine Coast. There are hundreds of lots and acreages for sale and you can follow the market through the price history.

    Eg Water view acreage bought about 10-12 years ago for $250K . Listed in 2007/8 for $600K! Sits there unsold and the price has been dropped to probably would take an offer for the sale price of a decade ago.

    Some waterfront lots still asking nearly as much as waterfront with house now selling for - clearly delusional.

    What makes something 'worth' triple in a few years then sliced down to a third again? Speculation

  6. 21 new and reduced SFH in West Van today. No sales.

  7. TD says drop in Vancouver and Toronto will be 15% over two years not a bigger collapse.

    A 15% drop from here would be very nice and very acceptable. However how anyone can be so adamant about such a multifactorial event (imagine interest rates hitting 'normal' 5-6%) is beyond me.

    1. Per jessie's interpretation of the article, it'll be at least 15%. quote:- "Reading the report’s text, they are calling for a decline of at least 15%. That’s not quite the same as “about 15%”, though I can understand how the mistake can be made." -:unquote.

      Just a wild guess at an intellectual multifactorial conclusion - perhaps great minds work in synchronization of a single switch.

  8. Whistler condos/townhouses are now ASKING $500/foot for renovated and near the village.


    Lots more like that on MLS/ Craigslist etc.

  9. re: that TD article.

    am i on a different planet? haven't average prices ALREADY dropped 12% from peak in Metro Van?, wiping out the last two years of gains in the first few months of this year?

  10. Not all the houses show up on MLS map search. Yaletown's Grace have 10 units for sale but only V840369 shows up.
    Not showing up are:

    I counted at least 4-5 houses for sale on the short stretch of Sussex Av between Kingsway & Grange St, but none of them show up on MLS map search ( as well.

  11. Remember all those missing SFH sales from West Van yesterday- dang - they turned up today. NOT. Just kidding

    14 new, 8 changed, 3 sales

    Some of the price cuts are $400K+

    If we continue on this path, the average price will be much lower this month.

    1. "If we continue on this path, the average price will be much lower this month."

      But don't worry, the HPI benchmark price will be up...

    2. Got it!
      A balloon, not a bubble.
      So it'll go UP, UP, UP .....

  12. House on Kew Cliff Road. West van started out at...drum roll..14.3 Million...then cut to 12.98 big ones and now....clanging of symbols...9.98 Million. How did they decide it was worth $14.3, 300 days ago and now 40% less?

  13. An update to the above chartbook, dated July 2012, is below:

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