Monday, June 4, 2012

Fraser Valley

Stats out here for May.

1,616 sales
10,826 inventory

MOI of 6.69 a bit lower than I thought we would end up. There was actually a little more buying near the end of the month it seems.

SFH Benchmark up 3.6% YOY and Attached, Condos flat YOY. Of course there has been a lot of doubt placed on the HPI of the various boards. Some say they are designed never to go down!

I cannot comment, not having the time to pour over the statistical analysis, however it is hard to see how the average AND the median are both down for SFH -3.7 and -3.8 and the HPI is still up.

Beats my simple statistical brain.


  1. I think the HPI is smoothed beyond recognition. It might be good for confirmation in a long term trend, but it's not for market watchers or anyone who expects volatility.

  2. NO SFH in West Van today. Lots of listings and lots of prices changes. Something is afoot.

  3. And I thought they simply disappeared in a pop.

  4. I won't be so quick to call the end of this thing. Chinese banks are lending again, and after sitting on their hands for 3 weeks they met their May quota in 1 week:

    What's another empty city or two at this point? Beijing has 3.8 million empty houses? Really?

    This is "asset-based hyperinflation". You're labour is worth nothing. It's an insane model, but that's what we've been going with and it could very well continue.

  5. Let's hope the REBGV and the FVRB keep fudging those numbers. We need them to. So far, no interest rate hike and there won't be one if F looks at the data and sees prices diving over a cliff.