Monday, June 4, 2012

Fraser Valley

Stats out here for May.

1,616 sales
10,826 inventory

MOI of 6.69 a bit lower than I thought we would end up. There was actually a little more buying near the end of the month it seems.

SFH Benchmark up 3.6% YOY and Attached, Condos flat YOY. Of course there has been a lot of doubt placed on the HPI of the various boards. Some say they are designed never to go down!

I cannot comment, not having the time to pour over the statistical analysis, however it is hard to see how the average AND the median are both down for SFH -3.7 and -3.8 and the HPI is still up.

Beats my simple statistical brain.

6 comments:

  1. I think the HPI is smoothed beyond recognition. It might be good for confirmation in a long term trend, but it's not for market watchers or anyone who expects volatility.

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  2. NO SFH in West Van today. Lots of listings and lots of prices changes. Something is afoot.

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  3. And I thought they simply disappeared in a pop.

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  4. I won't be so quick to call the end of this thing. Chinese banks are lending again, and after sitting on their hands for 3 weeks they met their May quota in 1 week:

    http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/economy/mission-completed-chinese-banks-have-actually-lent-rmb800-billion.html

    What's another empty city or two at this point? Beijing has 3.8 million empty houses? Really?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/beijing-alone-has-50-more-vacant-housing-us

    This is "asset-based hyperinflation". You're labour is worth nothing. It's an insane model, but that's what we've been going with and it could very well continue.

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  5. Let's hope the REBGV and the FVRB keep fudging those numbers. We need them to. So far, no interest rate hike and there won't be one if F looks at the data and sees prices diving over a cliff.

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