Thursday, August 2, 2012

REBGV Release


Greater Vancouver housing market hits summer lull

Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver remained at a 10-year low in July, while the number of properties being listed for sale continued to edge down and prices remained relatively stable.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that there were 2,098 residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in July. That’s an 18.4 per cent decline compared to the 2,571 sales in July 2011 and an 11.2 per cent decline compared to the previous month’s 2,362 sales.

July sales were the lowest total for that month in the region since 2000. They were 31.2 per cent below the 10-year July sales average of 3,051.

“People appear to be cautious about making significant financial decisions right now. While our local economy appears to be quite robust, there may be some concern about the impact of international markets and the federal government’s tightening of mortgage regulations,” says Eugen Klein, REBGV president.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 4,802 in July, the lowest number of new listings for any month this year. This represents a 5.8 per cent decline compared to July 2011 when 5,097 properties were newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) and a 14.5 per cent decline compared to the 5,617 new listings reported in June 2012.

At 18,081, the total number of active residential property listings on the MLS® increased 18.8 per cent from this time last year and decreased 2.2 per cent compared to the previous month.

“With a sales-to-actives-listing ratio of 11.6 per cent, conditions have favoured buyers in our marketplace in recent months,” Klein said. “That means buyers have more selection to choose from and more time to make a decision. For sellers, it’s important to price properties competitively. For information on local market prices, contact your REALTOR®.”

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 0.6% to $616,000 and declined 0.7% compared to last month.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in July 2012 reached 787, a decrease of 28.4 per cent from the 1,099 detached sales recorded in July 2011, and a 13.3 per cent decrease from the 908 units sold in July 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 1.4 per cent from July 2011 to $950,200 and declined 1.2 per cent compared to last month.

Sales of apartment properties reached 927 in July 2012, a 10.9 per cent decrease compared to the 1,040 sales in July 2011, and a decrease of 5.3 per cent compared to the 979 sales in July 2010. The benchmark price of an apartment property remains unchanged compared to July 2011 at $374,300 and declined 0.5 per cent compared to last month.

Attached property sales in July 2012 totalled 384, an 11.1 per cent decrease compared to the 432 sales in July 2011, and a 4.3 per cent increase from the 368 attached properties sold in July 2010. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 0.5 per cent between July 2011 and 2012 to $468,700 and is relatively unchanged compared to last month.


18% decline is sales and 18% rise in inventory compared to last year. No good way to spin that one.

Their HPI finally takes a tiny dip. About 1%.

Some of the HPI calculations don't make sense to me. Eg Whistler. 5 year HPI over-all up 29%. SFH down 1.4% but apartments up 76%. That is not what I see when I look at the numbers.

Lots of other places have negative 5 year HPI numbers. No gain for 5 years just higher expenses, and the early July bump is behind us. The average price graph is quite something to behold. A double top and then a rapid plop down.

The problem is soo much of our local economy is in the FIRE industries (throw in healthcare too) that a significant slowdown will be very unpleasant. If China falters further, it will turn nasty.


7 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  2. Appreciate your succinct sum up. If only the gilded club is easier to follow as some of their noted members ...

    "Like many indices the HPI is just another spoke in a wheel of spinning numbers."

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  3. BC Hydro sold >100 houses in Tsawwassen Heights from September 2010 to April 2012. Some buyers who bought in 2011 paid more than the current BC assessed values. I don't see many of these back on the market, other than a couple on the MLS/FSBO.

    Granted some upgrades were done, but is a $100k-flip (>20%) reasonable for that area in such a short time?
    MLS®: V959379 / AP: $579,900
    bought on 28/Mar/2011 for $479,000
    current BC assessed value: $459,000
    1122 53A ST DELTA V4M 3E3

    There is no upgrade on this one. Infact, there were numerous ads in May/2011 and June/2011, to flip it for a cool $649k before the completion/ possession dates.
    completion date: 2011-Jul-20
    posession date: 2011-Jul-21
    bought on 17/Mar/2011 for $539,000
    current BC assessed value: $544,600
    1438 53A ST DELTA V4M 3E6

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    Replies
    1. Asking is one thing, receiving is another :0

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    2. There are shortages of carpetbaggers :0

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  4. V890362 (2011) and V955015 (2012 June) share the same photos and furniture. There are even the same small appliances on top of the kitchen cabinets.
    http://imgur.com/T1WDQ
    http://imgur.com/1m2pW

    So this house last changed ownership in 2009 March for $610k-ish. 2 years later, it (V890362) was listed for sale at $899k, almost 30% more. It didn't sell. The new listing V955015 was listed on 2012 June/06 for $999k, and then on July/07 reduced to $939k.
    There must be bipolar investors out there lining up to bid for this gem.

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  5. The good professor at The Economic Analyst has painted a grim picture that will impact the local banks.

    Here is to recap what I commented a few posts back. A friend is selling a house he owns with his extended family. It was first listed 3 months ago, and he hasn't received a single offer yet. He is adamant that he will not reduce his asking price when houses in his neighborhood have sold in the same price range. His property is much older (by 15 to 25 years), inferior in built & design, poorly maintained with signs of leaks (I've been insde many times), and has less curb appeal. Something he said before his yet-another-overseas-vacation, convinced me that I should keep my mouth shut and mind my own business.

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