Wednesday, August 8, 2012

The President calling like it is...a buyer's market




Nothing to add really. I think he says it all. Where to from here?

Will we get a sudden rush of demand? Driven by what? The CMHC has been (belatedly) hog-tied, rates are low (and the 5 year Canadian bond rates have been drifting up), the Government has come to it's sense and is not as speculator-friendly as it was- so we could have more weakness and a stand-off between buyers who are not as panicked and sellers who remember the good-old-days.

As to the discussion below on HPI v Median v Average v Benchmark, it is all academic. The market sets the price. I saw a  home on the sunshine coast sell for 20% under list,  at the same price it was bought for 5 years ago, after being renovated . How will that show up in the HPI??

20 comments:

  1. No SFH sales in West Van today.

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    Replies
    1. Yup, and no lack of bailer-sellers if you follow gse36 and observer. Holy $$$t! A unit at Fairmont Residence is now fetching $1,000,000 less than identical suites sold in 2010. And this one to boot,

      Property ID: 3099
      #3403
      original AP: $5,000,000
      dropped to: $2,888,888

      Delete
  2. Central 1 Credit Union joins Scotia`s party in ....
    `Metro home prices will slip, not plunge
    Low rates and employment growth will help level prices``

    Yu’s report maintains home prices in Metro Vancouver should drop more than five per cent this year before rising 2.9 per cent in 2013 and 2.0 per cent in 2014.

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Metro+home+prices+will+slip+plunge+Central+Credit+Union/7060886/story.html#ixzz231bzQYrz

    down more than 5% for the 2nd half of this year
    up 2.9% in 2013
    up 2% in 2014

    WOW, can he predict the next lottoMax numbers as wellÉ

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    Replies
    1. Most people have trouble predicting the direction. This fellow predicts the direction, the timing of the turns and the exact amounts - not 3% but 2.9%. Quite the crystal ball!

      Delete
  3. On my way to the bank to deposit every morning, I pass by Moda's presentation center. They hire a black-and-white chic to clean the sidewalk. LOL

    http://images.askmen.com/top_10/entertainment/1302127231_top-10-women-bartenders_5.jpg

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  4. To the discussion of the HPI in the previous post.

    Look at the Sunshine Coast example. Same price as it sold for 5 years ago. Now how would that be calculated for HPI?

    Well you would have to know what the benchmark is for the SC? Is it above or below the benchmark house. Then you would have to know how much up-grading went into it to see if the house went up to or above benchmark. Then the sales price to see what effect it has on the benchmark/ HPI -call it what you will.

    You see how complicated it is? Almost impossible in fact. The large market HPI calculators likely take sample sales, investigate them in detail, and then extrapolate from that.

    For small markets it is a joke, like the Ok or SC or Whistler where there are so few sales of each category and for larger markets they would need rigorous data analysis and entry to get a reasonable number. The question is - how likely is that?

    Answer that for yourselves and you will decide how much store to put in the RE Board HPI generated numbers.

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  5. Who's going to buy here.... Everyone that wants to pay inflated housing prices, enjoys months of rain, and wants to spend the best years of their live's paying off a bank who will one day adjust their mortgage rate up, duh.

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  6. What bubble?

    The city’s condo boom may be keeping both Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney up at night, but at least one high-level economist is contradicting both (because when has anyone ever agreed about the real estate market?). Robert Hogue, a senior economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, insists there’s no bubble in Toronto and, while the market will likely see a bit of cooling, there won’t be an epic condo crash.
    http://www.torontolife.com/daily/informer/to-market-to-market/2012/07/24/rbc-economist-says-no-bubble/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can they (RBC) stop the job losses too?

      Delete
  7. Canada sheds 30,400 jobs in July

    "Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter predicted August's performance may be as bad, noting that Statistics Canada had still to register education sector layoffs that normally occur during the summer months."

    http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Canadian+unemployment+rate+rises+30400+jobs+lost+disappointing/7070540/story.html#ixzz23A3vdk8a

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  8. "In his interview with CTV, Mr. Carney said Canadians quit worrying about the European debt crisis because it’s out of their control. Canada has relatively little exposure to Europe, and the country’s banks are solid enough to withstand a worst-case scenario. Canadians, he said, need to focus on “how we’re going to grow our economy, which is largely going to be investing, in productive capital, not in houses or condos, and in growing our economic relationships with major emerging markets. That’s how we are going to grow our economy over a five-, ten-year period.”"

    It's too late! The horse has bolted the stable!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. video
      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-mark-carney-speaks/article4471115/?from=4471859

      Delete
  9. “Interest rates are 1 per cent in Canada; that’s very low,” Mr. Carney said on the BBC show HARDtalk. “We hat’s appropriate.”

    "Of course, it could be a while before the threat of a euro collapse no longer hangs over global financial markets."

    .
    .
    .
    .
    "Canada has relatively little exposure to Europe, and the country’s banks are solid enough to withstand a worst-case scenario. Canadians, he said ..."

    What a world class oxymoron!

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  10. phantom-of-the-condoAugust 10, 2012 at 11:24 AM

    Our banks may be strong enough to wihtstand a Euro collapse but what about our own RE collapse?

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  11. Lull before the storm! Notice the absence of the sadistic and crass shills from the ponzi scheme during Harper's Government? They are attending the wake of their own demise!!!

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  12. Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards to leave CREA over the latter's constant fees hike on agents and brokers rather than trim their national expenses.

    Part of CREA's rising fees may be a way to help cover the costs of recent battles with the country's Competition Bureau, which has accused the body of limiting the options available to agents.

    http://tinyurl.com/8rt35je

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  13. I am not a troll, as my thoughtful comments go back to VHB days. However, I must say, now would be the time to be seriously shopping for real estate.
    Reasons:
    1. US election in conjuction with Case Schiller turning positive for 20 top US cities.
    2.Canadain MSM has finally bought into the decline in RE sales and prices.
    3. Be greedy when most are fearful.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. @Vancouver-Price-Drop, people are planning to come back from UK and the US, esp the latter for early retirement and our healthcare. Returning Canadians do not show up in the stats until the next census.

      Delete
  14. I don't agree Anon@8:02PM. Be cautious.
    I do agree on one thing though, that is to continue to do your homework and track prices in the areas that you are interested in.

    During 2008/2009, I spotted several good deals with some prices going as far back as 2006, and one property A/P as low as back in 2004. Bulls were hateful shills; however some bears had their little agenda, political-wise or as a civil servant.

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  15. 2011-Feb-20
    http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=187839&page=4

    Flipper still wants $25K+ cut for assignment that he cannot complete.

    The 3 ads below are from the same guy as he cited the reason for sale "due to personal reason", for a unit on the 20+ floor.

    2012-07-14
    http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/bnc/reo/3081049846.html

    http://twitter.com/kijiji_CL/statuses/213881260697862144

    http://www.vanpeople.com/c/viewinfo.aspx?id=571880

    ReplyDelete