Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Banks Flip...flop

Last year there was no bubble, then there would be a mild correction, then a bigger one and now maybe not. 

That sort of summarizes the sequences of housing reports from the big banks. 

I guess no one really has a clue, but it is not acceptable to say that!

Here is TD in June calling for a 15% drop across Canada (that would be much larger in Vancouver) and would be financially very significant.

Now they say the drop will be 10% and maybe even flat because things are getting better.

Not so says the Royal, things are getting worse!

Scotiabank's CEO just said today- 'we get a soft-landing at worst'.

So place your bets and take your picks. We are certainly seeing all the metrics eroding here and prices heading down. Hard to see what the catalyst for a renewed rise here would be?

We have Provincial debt exceeding expectations, we have a Chinese slow-down, we have a change in psychology and the Bank of Canada and Feds are on the side of caution now (not that there is much more they can do anyway having used of most of their bullets)



  2. I am trying to post. Let's see if it works.

  3. Ah... it does. Fish, I've been having a bit of a hard time posting lately. I guess the trick is not to click preview because that deletes the post. Anywho I was going to comment that the banks are all followers. As soon as they make a prediction they look to see what the other banks have said and then backpedal. Once they all do this at once, it becomes comical in the way we are seeing now.

  4. Also hoping, Fish, you had a good summer and that you are well.


  5. Hi Egg
    The fact is predicting the future price pf anything is difficult. There are so many factors many of which we hadn't even thought of.
    Look at 2008/2009 we were facing a long awaited correction with collapse iin demand but who would have forecast the actions of the bank of Canada and the doubling of the CMHC both fiscally irresponsible but reigniting the bubble
    These banks have whole departments of highly paid economists - some are over-paid superstars like Sherry Cooper
    Did any of them see the US lhousing debacle? Then how likely are they to call our housing correctly
    I am well many thanks

  6. They don't have a clue? They and their humongous clients certainly don't want to lose cheap deposits and low interest rates.

    A lot of the fat cats have no clues whatsoever.

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