Saturday, September 1, 2012

Larry has the averages out

They are up for all categories, even with MOI at 11 and with sales down a whopping 25-40% from last year. Some areas will show even higher MOIs for August 16+.

This shows us what a big effect a few big sales are having. The high end buyers are not concerned about the local economy, CMHC tightening or rising rates, they are actually getting some good deals (15% + off in some cases ) but the numbers are still big enough to skew things.

I wondered if this would happen:

What should we expect for August's numbers?

I would be very shocked if the HPI does NOT show a good tumble. If not, then I will be even more suspicious about it's validity.

The averages are more difficult to forecast. Some big sales, but the majority have come in at the low end, even in high priced neighbourhoods.

11+ MOI is where we be at.

Have an excellent long week-end.

I doubt may Realtors are happy with a market that provides such diminished commissions.

And as my last post says, the speculative money from Mainland China is drying up (for now).

Now the HPI is different. If the HPI has any validity at all in looking at the 'typical' Vancouver residence, it should show major declines in my opinion.


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  2. Detached: 12.6 MOI
    Attached: 8.74 MOI
    Apartments: 9.75 MOI

    Detached has the highest MOI. Didn't expect that!

  3. Regardless of the average or HPI, you gotta figure actual prices in most areas (and categories) are down 5 to 10 percent. That's a lot more than rent in most cases!!!

    The market really just needs to continue as is, and the bears will be looking good in a couple of years. At this point any shock, such as a couple of points increase in interest rates, and it's free-fall time.

  4. Average price alone is a very poor measure for market condition as extreme ends of price scale can skew the average. That's why median price is used for HPI. In a large sample the median may represent a typical house price better. However, a better metric for market condition would be average and standard deviation. Or even better, the method used by Case-Shiller house index in US.