I think we could all see this coming. Yes, new listings had slowed down, but sales have been sliced in half...despite the great-weather-low-interest-rates-rich-Chinese-no-land.
We are solidly over 6 MOI in almost every area.
Lets see what the HPI brings in a few days.
BTW- What is that terrible smell that has been blanketing Vancouver for the last week? It smells like a big stinky fart!
Dude, if the smell is following you around, maybe it's not the city that smells. Just saying.
ReplyDeleteThanks for tip. I'll change my socks and see what happens.
ReplyDeleteSeems like I am not the only one though:
http://www.theprovince.com/What+made+Vancouver+smell+Nobody+nose/3340334/story.html
I shouldn't be so lazy:
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/2vktuk6
Again looks like flattish markets ahead, contrary to the apocalyptic posts by the bears. 71% sales/list, overall averaging marginally off all time highs.
ReplyDeleteWelcome back Chad.
ReplyDelete71% list/sales sounds good until you realise how much both have dropped. At this rate we could be looking at double digit MOIs by the fall.
Could..but of course everything could change.
A gradual decline suits me just fine.
1) It wears out the bulls and gives the bears time to survey the market, unlike the short sharp decline of 2008 which allowed sellers to sit out for a year and then get top dollar again.
2) It takes the pressure off the Government to do something...anything...asap.
3) A catastrophic drop would bring many social problems with it, that many bears haven't even considered, and would probably not like.
Slow and steady wins the race.
We agree that the market will be slow and steady without volatile fluctuations in either direction. I just don't think the market is going to do a whole lot of anything for a while. No panic buying, no panic selling.
ReplyDeleteJuly sales were downright horrible. Spin it any which way to Sunday but this level of sales don't buy Realtors the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip and most sellers have been sent packing.
ReplyDeleteWell Chad, I would have to say if the HPI and Median also show a 5% drop, we are in a different ball game.
ReplyDeleteA 5% drop MOM cannot be spun anyway but trend-changing.
I wonder if August is traditionally a big listings month or not?
ReplyDeleteAnyone know the answer?
@frank, no, active listings typically fall in August. September and October see listings surges for the "fall season." See here.
ReplyDeleteOf course a fall in listings will not stave off price drops unless sales volume increases dramatically, since price changes are highly correlated with month of inventory (active listings/monthly sales).
thanks Jesse, it looks like October is when listings flood in.
ReplyDeleteThe smell you mention seems to get worse at night. I think it is one of the waterfront industrial outfits burning something or maybe the NorthShore sewage plant discharging some gas. There is no regulation enforcement in this city unless your parking meter is one minute over-due.
ReplyDelete