Thursday, August 5, 2010

OK last post for a while, and it is on the OK

I am heading out of town for a week in a couple of days. So unless anything remarkable comes up, this will be it until the following week-end.

Got the Okanagan numbers, and the MOI are reaching eye-popping levels.

I knew I was in for interesting numbers when the titles of the three press releases were:

Summer Heat Cools Buyers’ Market in the North Okanagan

Summer Slows Buyers’ Market in the Central Okanagan

Home Buyers Take Summer Off in the Shuswap

29.6 MOI in the Shuswap/Revelstoke Area

23 MOI in the Central OK area (Kelowna etc)

26.8 MOI in the North Okanagan area

No real price comparisons I can find in the reports. They just report total dollar sales, which are of course down.

In any case we are deep into bear country here. I don't think I have ever seen MOIs that high in recent history in BC.


  1. In the OMREB release: "Buyers should not postpone purchases ... the buyers’ market is expected to be short-lived". LOL. Just when I thought I've seen it all.

  2. Thanks Jesse- keeps them listings a'comin while I am gone.

  3. Just heard on the radio- CBC Rick Clouugh will have a segment on the early morning show on Monday about Vancouver's RE market..'Now that the bottom seems to have fallen out of the market are sellers better to try and sell or rent it out'.

    I will be away but hope someone listens in and puts a summary up in the comments section.

    Even the media has realised that price follows sales. Low sales and high MOI means the sellers who have to sell (death,divorce, moving, job loss etc), set the price. And that price is lower.

  4. Let me get the logic of the bears right here.

    When the media is bullish they're a bunch of clowns. When they are bearish they are noble prize worthy. When sales are extremely strong it doesn't matter because listings are also strong, however when listings are weak they do not matter because sales are weak. One must be careful when viewing every statistic with such an inherent bias. We rallied 25% from lows and are now down 3% from highs, keep your heads straight.

  5. Welcome back Chad.

    i don't deny a bias. My bias is that RE is vastly over-priced in relation to local income, rental income, and is in a bubble.

    The local media which is all owned by the same company (Canwest) and produces the same message dismissed this possibility.

    They did the same in the US until the bubble burst and only acknowledged it when they were deep in it. If the media doesn't present a plurality of opinions on any topic it isn't worth crap.

    That's basically what we have in this city. The same opinion presented in different for a reading age of 10 and one for a reading age higher.

    As to the market. We are at 7 MOI in Vancouver- 9.8 in the Fraser Valley and two years or more in the Okanagan!

    I expect some fairly brisk price drops unless buyers come back into the market.

    Of course what I think and $ know the rest...

  6. All the above is of course IMVHO. I haven't bought the local papers or read them on-line for a long time, so maybe things have changed.

    Have they ? those that do.

  7. While its on my mind, I have to say that picture of the griz is simply fabulous. Good find Fish, and well done national geographic.

  8. On the "media bias" bit, listening to CKNW (also owned by Canwest before they ran into debt trouble, not sure of the status now.) Mike Smythe on the housing market, the only "expert" was Cam Muir (paycheck courtesy of Realtors) and his advice was that it looks scary, but could represent the best buying opportunity with some time to consider without bidding wars.
    Oh yes, and for more good advice contact a person who gets paid if and only if you buy.