Monday, October 10, 2011

Some Court ordered Sales

Ex-Grow Op

Whistler- but how much do you need to spend to be able to live in it?

$200/foot suite

$160/foot suite

$200/foot suite in Whiterock.

$110/foot suite in Maple Ridge

If I remember correctly, at the depth of the 2008/9 crash, before ZIRP and CMHC was put on steroids suites in Surrey and surrounds sold for $100-150/foot. We are almost back there, considering these are asking prices.


  1. The house @23771 0 Ave, Langley is so creepy. So are the ones @Whistler, Surrey ... LOL.


  2. FWIW - I sold the final condo I owned on Friday. I now own no Vancouver real estate. I've maintained my stance for several years, the market would continue to go higher in the face of fundamentals. I constantly said I believe a crash of coming, but thought you guys were way off on the timing -- that proved to be correct. The market could continue to grind higher, but the risks of not being able to sell once it hits the fan persuaded me to take my profit and watch the crash from a distance. I have no idea when the crash will occur, I think sometime within the next 5 years is a reasonable time frame. I am considering taking the proceeds and beginning to purchase houses in the states -- my only issue is the tax consequences for Canadians so if anyone is actively doing this already I'd love to chat.

  3. ...and... the safe exit into spades.

  4. Nice Chad. Glad you got it right and nice to have you on board the vessel Ursa Realatum. You obviously have some deeper insight into the mind of even the Finance Minister to remain bullish while the US collapsed and the worst economic crisis since the GD has engulfed the world.

    It is easy to say when something is over-valued. it is not as easy to say when it will correct. Stupidity and momentum and the foolishness of our leaders in trying to keep bubbles inflated keep them going for longer than they should. The result is usually an even bigger bust like the US.

    nevertheless when something looks that over-priced compared to fundamentals then I have to step aside. They have definately been there for the 3 years I have been blogging (2008 went to blogging heaven).

    We were denied our correction in 2009. I dont think we will be denied this time.

  5. Make that nearly four years as 2011 is almost over!

  6. "It is easy to say when something is over-valued. it is not as easy to say when it will correct" <-- very true. My rule of thumb, as simple as it may sound, is identify a clear bubble and then give it an extended period to overshoot before betting against the bubble. I have made a lot of money shorting NFLX recently and while it was clear to everyone that the stock was a dog before it crashed, people who had the correct thesis a year ago got carried out on stretchers. With real estate, you have to wait even longer than with equities for the bubbles to correct. I don't think we'll see a US style crash but I can see us 20% lower at some point in the next 5 years, and unlike stocks, when shit hits the fan, there is zero liquidity.

  7. I just got word of a waterfront listing on the Sunshine Coast for less than $590K. CMHC sale.

    Less than 2 years ago the owners apparently turned down $840.

    Skookumchuck isn't the only thing that's rapid there.

  8. I thought free turkey dinners are for people in destitue. LOL
    I've stopped donating Xmas toys, when I found out those FOBs are making a bee line to collect their freebies in their BMWs.

  9. Wow- if the CMHC is the holder and seller already we are in for some trouble.

    Lets just remember who doubled this monster.

    Chad if you think that the correction will be 20% at most within 5 years, it doesn't make sense to sell.

    You will lose 2% in transfer tax and 2% + in fees and mortgage rates may be a lot higher when you come in buy back.

    We are already off 5% from the peak.

    I am thinking we get 20% in one year when the bear comes growling. Look what is happening outside of Vancouver. Flat YOY in the Fraser valley- any losses now are off the principle. 10-20 % already in OK and the same in the SCoast, Whistler etc.

    Anyway you have played it right so far.

  10. Well I'm not buying again anytime soon and the price I received for my place was, in my opinion, identical to what I could have received at the peak unless there was a bidding war.

    Also, like I've said in the past I trade equities for a living and think with Van RE flat to down, my money is better off being traded by myself than tied up in RE at this moment. I also am looking at properties down south which look incredibly compelling right now.

  11. good for you trading edge.

    I'm a fundamentally trained investor (cfa, ca, economics/business degree)...anyways, I've learned the hard way that trends/bubbles can continue way past fundamentals/intrinsic value, so I have to agree with your points...

    i also agree with fish, this could be the big one for vancouver...did anyone see marc faber on bnn this afternoon chuckling about how bad the vancouver housing bubble is going to get hit?

    we are making the big time, i think van will chalk up a wild ride down...yes, great place to live, and yes will trade at a long term premium (not this crazy amount though) to value, but first we'll go illiquid as trading edge alludes to and shoot down past fair value.

    its gonna hurt bad and i think it has already started...the great unwashed are unaware...

    caveat emptor, I also think the stock market will do really well over the next year or two (not is a straight line, but safety is way over owned and risk under...JMHO).

  12. I agree that now is a good time to sell the Vancouver RE market if you are looking to lock in a profit, but I also think we will revisit the 2008 lows on the equities market.

  13. I don't care if we test 2008 lows in the equities market, I'm not a long only trader. Also, Fish, I never said that 20% is the max Van RE will fall, I just picked that # out of the air as a rough estimate of how much we could fall. Could we fall 50%? Yes, it would not shock me. It also wouldn't shock me if we fell considerably less.

  14. Well Chad you are a great investor. You sold your property at the top, shorted Netflixs at the top, aren't worries about the stock market going up or down as you will make money either way and think there well be a 20% correction 'within 5 years' but don't want to be held to it. Don't worry none of us will remember in five years what you posted.

    better still why don't you just say it will drop between 0-70% within the next decade, then you cannot be wrong!

  15. I don't know if you're new here, Frank, but I posted throughout the life of this blog when I was holding RE and I posted when I sold. If you'd like me to show you the statements of my NFLX short, I will. If you'd like to compare my investment returns for 2009, 2010 or 2011, to yours, I'd love to do that. Better yet, put money where your mouth is, if your % returns on ANY of the past 3 years is better than mine, you win the bet, if mine is better, I win the bet. You name the price, no maximum, no minimum.

    I'll await your response.

  16. Econs101 for all new arrivals to BPOE :D

  17. As expected, no response from Frank.

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