Thursday, October 6, 2011

Time to stick that neck out even further...

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
So here it is my call for October's numbers...

We have already OK and Fraser Valley prices flat YOY..

We need a drop of $48,000 in the average SFH price to get there in Vancouver..

I think we are going to get pretty close when we get the October numbers.

I suspect something will have reached ground zero. One of the measures (average, median or benchmark) of one of the sub-units. Eg Condos or Attached or SFH.

I did pretty good calling for a substantial drop for SFH for September, lets see if I am lucky twice in a row.

Why do I say this? Just by looking at the numbers..

1) The drop in listings at month end was less than usual.

2) Sales have not picked up and price changes are matching or beating sales.

3) Sales have not picked up even though mortgage rates at the long end have come down.

4) The MSM is talking 'correction'.

5) Flaherty just said no new stimulus unless it gets really bad.

Here is the ironic thing- the last go around they would have been fine with just letting Carney punish savers and reward speculators with his zero interest rate. However it was just too tempting to step on the housing accelerator pedal. Result = big bubble. That pedal is too risky now when we are already travelling at 100 MPH.

6) China- our cash buyers have issues of their own. Hard to get a read on how things are going there. It is so large that anyone reporting in one major city may miss what is happening somewhere else. What is clear is that 10% growth is gone for now. Their scope of purchases are narrowing in any case to just a few areas.

7) The stock-market has been on a downward trajectory. RE and the TSX have tended to mirror each other. The TSX has dropped 20%+

8) The RE price graph has cracked. We have had a parabolic run-up which peaked in May, and prices have come down. This has a psychological effect on both buyers and sellers.

9) The domestic growth drivers are tepid at best. Governments are not in spend mode, the Olympics build out is over, the world economy is weakening affecting commodities which have taken a beating (look at copper) and tourism (which is down).

Adding all the above together it seems to me that we have more weakness ahead. If you can think of more reasons, or reasons why it won't please pipe up!

All this assumes there are no major external shocks in the world economy.


  1. Yeah. Chinese business owners are disappearing and jumping out of windows as they can't pay back their ponzi debt:

    How much of that ponzi shark loan cash has made it's way to Vancouver? And when will those f-kers jump?

  2. forumites found one that disappeared in 2007 and reappeared in Toronto buying real estates under numbered company(ies). Google translated his name from Johny-Fei-Jun to Fisher-Army. Must be that fishy smell.
    middle of article
    "Users guess: 'Fisher army' Who are you?"
    last 6 paragraphs of the article

  3. oops .. link for Globe & Mail readers

  4. Flippers on hold. In the mean time rent this house.