Thursday, December 1, 2011

What did I tell you??

(Does a little dance and strut of victory)..

Here's what I thought would happen:

MOI 6.5
MOM price change -1-2% in most of the categories (attached is always an odd one)
YOY- I think we will still be up 4-5% YOY after October's disappointing rebound.

Here is what happened from Larry Yatter's number.

Average SFH down 2% MOM.
MOI 6.3
However we are up 8-9% YOY still.
All categories showed drops.

Listings 14% higher than last year and sales down 12%.

Very different from last year when we saw the summer lull give way to a fall buying spree and dropping inventory. Maybe we have finally seen home prices reach their maximum level of unaffordable frenzy, maybe the bubble can no longer be blown up.

Fall 2011 is very different from Fall 2010 but we need a lot more to declare this lunacy ended.


  1. Victoria MOI 9, up from 7.7 last year

  2. "Fall 2011 is very different from Fall 2011 but we need a lot more to declare this lunacy ended."

    Umm... it's identical, isn't it?

    Do you mean Fall 2010 is very different from Fall 2011?

  3. Ha...right you are anon. Will change it.

  4. Dec 01 - China to lower reserve-ratio; PMI falls to 49%

    Nov 28 - China's property price interventions may end in mid-2012

    Real estate booms and crashes are in the hands of oligarchs and oligarchies. The economics concept of "demand & supply" doesn't exist in China. The worst part is that it affects our market, because of inept government at all 3 levels.

  5. @vreaa's blog - Max Fawcett, an Edmonton journalist, writes: “I’m working on a story for an Edmonton magazine about educated/middle class people leaving Vancouver for Edmonton.
    Yeah, families move to Edmonton for the provincial funding programs of autism therapy that pay $60,000 per child per year. Alberta's autism services attract families from abroad and other Canadian provinces.

    But then, his proposed theme on "Vancouver-families fleeing-for cheaper-Edmonton-houses" will draw more readers. Just my 2 cents.

  6. Vancouver housing is going to crash big time. Many of the Chinese buyers have mortgaged their houses in china to buy in Vancouver . Now that house prices are falling there those valuations will eventually be worthless and many will leave there mc mansions in Vancouver because they will be able to service the ridiculous mortgages that they have picked up in Canada .
    The time is coming, beware!