Wednesday, December 14, 2011

What we have in the Vancouver Market is this

A consolidation pattern. So far the market has dropped, picked up a bit, and then dropped a bit again, much like this pattern.

When assets do this, they moved out of their trend and are biding time. Waiting for the next buying frenzy to move them up or a break down and out of the pattern.

It could go either way. So far European debt crises, Chinese slow downs, commodity collapses etc have had very little effect on the price of housing in this city, though outside buyers have seen 5-10% drops in the last two years.

December will show a high sales/list ratio due to on-going buying but less listings. The price may just edge up or down a bit, leaving January with the final tale to tell on this pattern resolution.

It should break down- however I do not for one second count out the possibility of renewed easing by the Central banks of the world. Carney has been talking tough on Canadian consumer debt which he helped create with ultra-low rates, but I am sure he would not blink an eye-lid and join with his buddies in slashing back down to 0.25% which would save the stockmarket and push all assets- gold, RE, oil back into the stratosphere.

One day there will be nowhere to go. rates will be at zero. The US Fed will own most US bonds (they have already bought up so much in their ponzi scheme, that they own more than China or Japan or the Gulf States!) The consumer will be so tapped out that, like a gorged glutton they cannot take on another cent to consume.

We are pretty close to that state but there may be just a little more they can squeeze into the glutton:

Like the fellow who makes his entrance at about one minute 10 seconds


  1. Canadians still eating from the low-rate mortgage buffet. Carney has to carry on scolding the glutton while begging businesses to hire (yeah, right).

    I think the mint wafer is still a few courses away.

  2. Its December. Are you seriously commenting on a December market?

  3. The MELTDOWN is now in motion.

    Turkeys are loaded up and ready for the slaughter.

    It's coming!

  4. Chimpman is posting daily stats again.

    Send him your banana.

  5. Perhaps BPOM recognizes who are these illegal workers on visitors passes?