Monday, February 6, 2012

FVREB..

They have rejigged their HPI too!

Anyway the 'new' HPI shows a 7.1% YOY gain for SFH..

While Median is down 0.8% and average is up 0.5%

ie flat at best YOY.

MOI is 10.5


The HPI shows lots of losses (- numbers) over the last five years. eg Mission detached down 5% over 5 years or Abbotsford condos down 5% over 5 years. RE is all about timing .. some categories are down 12% over 3 years.

Look at the graph of sales/active listings ratio . Currently at 10% (same as an MOI of 10) and see how far it is in buyer's territory. The last time it got that lower was in 2008/9.

Any boots of the ground reports from the FV?

5 comments:

  1. Fish,

    I told you a week or so back to hold onto yer knickers.

    Don't be a whinny biatch.

    This market is heading for FREEFALL. I expect screams in the night over the coming months. The great unwashed will be fucked, absolutely fucked. They have no clue how deep they are, the sad poor fucking non thinkers....

    Keep up the great work. The fun begins.

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  2. Hey,

    Don't comment very often, but love the blog.

    If you're looking for confirmation of what a farce the HPI is, look no further than the difference between the last two pages of the FVREB link you posted above. Average prices in the last year down about 10% on page 11, wile HPI showing "benchmark" prices holding steady.

    I spit out my coffee even though I wasn't drinking any when I saw that. Total laugher.

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  3. Their HPI benchmark may not be all that bad. I think it tracks the year over year median price with a lot of smoothing. Useless for second guessing the market, but ok for judging the overall picture. Just to clarify, that's the "Home Price Index Benchmark Prices" which gives a dollar amount. The "Home Price Index" which is indexed from 100 looks like some kind of bullshit.

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  4. Right you are Anon 11.19.

    I didn't differentiate between the two

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  5. hey fishy

    How is surrey holding up buddy

    ReplyDelete