Monday, February 6, 2012

Here we go...

Confusion reigns the day. Please take this quick post with some slat and correct any errors.

We have a new method of calculating HPI which the REBGV says we should not compare with previous HPI's and then it goes ahead and compares it... and lo and behold there are two charts with completely different numbers.

While we sort though this confusion, here is what is certain:

"We are seeing trends emerge that favour buyers.." so says the REBGV Prez.

13% less sales than last year. 18% less than 2010.

19.9% increase in new listings from last year (Jan 12 v Jan 11)

253% higher than December 2011

Total listings up 20% from last Jan. Highest Jan listings since 1995.

MOI = 12544/1577 = 7.9! Is that right.


Now here is the confused mess:

Press release chart with HPI chart

Another HPI chart

The second one shows a LOT more areas with 5 year negative values and makes more sense to me eg Whistler condos; which is +95% on the first chart and -6.8% on the second. I presume one is using the old HPI and one the new, though the discrepancies are just too large.

Can anyone make sense of this? Jesse? anyone else? I am too busy to try and plow through it right now.

Sure would like to see the median prices.

105 comments:

  1. I think the top one is the new HPI which they went back and used 2005 as the base.

    The second one mst be the old HPI, but like you I cannot work out why there is such a difeerence between the two.

    ReplyDelete
  2. They rejigged how the HPI is calculated. You cannot compare the old HPI to the new one, at least not directly. I just started poring over the data and will get to it at some point but all I can state is the new HPI data should only be compared to new HPI data.

    To really get a sense of what's going on, perhaps it's best to wait for the Teranet HPI, which supplies aggregate regional numbers but also uses the most accurate measure of market movements we have. I don't have access to the new HPI data going back to 2005 (I only have to 2007), if you know where I can get my grubby hands on them let me know and I'll run it through my sausagemaker.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks Jesse.

    Well guess what... they changed it soon after my blog post, so both are the same new and improved version. Except the old version had Whistler and the S/S coast and many other areas down a few % over 5 years and this one is completely different.

    Conspiracy theorists will like that.

    In any case, HPI games aside, we have a weakening market PERIOD.

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