Thursday, March 1, 2012

words fail me............almost

New high for the average price

Actually this is not unexpected. Inventory is the highest since the 2009 crash. The MOI is over 6 and much higher in the outskirts, with condos leading the pack, sales are down a lot compared with last year- yet HAM buying has been hot and heavy in the pricey areas...so the average is up!


In fact we have had several huge sales, and not just to the Lululemon founder, but to some very rich locals and HAM, which has skewed things considerable.

Now we will have to wait for the HPI, though of course we know that the REB has fiddled with this so that this is not as reliable as it was.

Actually this result is not as bad as it would seem:

1) Higher prices will bolster the very little back-bone the Feds have to deal with their own excesses.

2) In all bubbles the periphery starts to defalte first- OK, Sunshine Coast, Fraser Valley and then we get to the centre. That's what happened in the US.

If this is the case, we would expect weakness to emerge from the FV numbers and our numbers to be weaker from here onwards.

6 comments:

  1. Brace yourself for Cam Good.

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  2. Hahaha wow, a 16% increase in the average in 2 months. Extrapolate over a year and you get a 96.4% rise! It must be true, everyone really does want to live here. Who cares if the teachers have to fight tooth and nail for a cost of living increase, their houses will see them clear through retirement! See, the government has their backs in the end, just as long as they already own a house.

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  3. fish,
    I sympathise with you and many other young professionals unable to buy a house here.
    Like it or not, house prices have made life miserable for most people here and this will continue for a long time.
    What is happening mainly, is smart chinese money being recycled in hard assets that produce some small cashflow in form of rental income (still better than current interest rates) that allows the rich chinese to live like kings here. This will continue here for a very long time. China has a huge population, whereas removing 30million people out of china wont even be noticed, it will double Canada's population. This thing will continue for a very long time until some unforeseen events happen and stop it.
    BoC and our government are acomplice to this of course. The status quo will be maintained no matter the consequences.

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  4. Yup, Anon is right. We cannot compete against easy, hot, untaxed money. Buying 100K or 200K over asking means nothing to someone who got their dough easy and didn't have to pay Federal, Provincial taxes, CPP, UI etc.

    They have their money stashed in property in a country where they respect your property rights and defend them for you even if you only come to pick up your rent once a year.

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  5. Average up? Guess where the high MOI is.

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  6. "This thing will continue for a very long time until some unforeseen events happen and stop it."

    OK

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