Friday, April 30, 2010

End of the week

My last post drew some significant reactions which I expected.

Nothing has divided this city, or caused anger as much as this danged RE bubble.

We have many 'hot-potato' political issues, but they pale in comparison to this one issue.

We have so much tied up in it, on both sides, both emotionally and financially.

Many bears have their marriages on the line as they stayed out of the market and watched speculation drive the price ever out of their reach. Other the hand, I know of buyers who are maxed out due to the insistence of one of the spouses to get into the market NOW and there will be problems if the price drops and they get into negative equity or lose the ability to pay the huge mortgages.

Such is the result of a bubble. Make a note future politicians and policy makers. It is not something to be proud of, but something to try and deflate as soon as it shows up.

I remember the same thing happening in California five years ago. prices got so high, that even in middle-class areas, none of the middle-class folks who worked in the community and were an essential part of it..eg teachers, police, fire-fighters, nurses etc could afford to live there. They would commute in from cheaper areas. The same can be said of Vancouver.

I also remember the dot-com days, where some young high-tech folks were made instant millionaires due to stock options in the latest crapola company (long since bankrupt) while their colleagues in other fields worked just as hard and had very little to show for it.

Lots of bitterness and anger around too. This is the social result of a bubble.

OK lets see what May brings.

I suspect April may show a small drop in prices. Larry Yatter promises to have the numbers out first. We have the winds of HST, CMHC, Mortgage rates and excruciating lack of affordability blowing in the face of prices. We still had strong sales in April with some buyer panic, which is inexplicable in the face of rapidly rising inventory.

I also have the feeling that price strength is narrowing down to the choicest neighbourhoods. A marker of divergence.

180 comments:

  1. According to Larry's averages, houses and townhouses went UP AGAIN (arggggh) in April, and condos came down about 5k.

    http://www.yattermatters.com/real-estate/another-vancouver-record/

    These aren't Teranet numbers, but they are available two or three months sooner than Teranet, which, IMHO, makes them awesome!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Rubber- You. However attached went up 0.15% or 1.8% annualized. That is flat in my book. Lets wait and see what the benchmark was.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Oops- that should have read detached above.

    The more expensive areas have been on fire recently, so I am not surprised that the averages are all over the place. up $1500 in detached. down $5000 in condos and up a bunch in attached.

    I am waiting for the benchmark for a clearer picture.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I can tell this bubble has nearly run its course. Last time someone mentioned they bought a house in East Van at a get together-there was nothing but stunned silence. One girl piped up "What, are you going to pass the debt on to your kids?"
    It's almost here.

    ReplyDelete
  5. "What, are you going to pass the debt on to your kids?"

    Hahaha, those kids have no obligation to pay. If a person dies and their estate is underwater, it's "too bad" for the creditors. Banks that give 35 year mortgages to people in their 60's deserve whatever they will get.

    I expect this to be a great business opportunity. Harassing the children and relatives of highly indebted people to "do the right thing" and assume the debts. Like a collection agency but with no legal obligation to pay.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Those averages, regardless of the benchmark, are mind-boggling. Somebody's getting a wad of money and somebody's getting a pile of sticks and a postage stamp of dirt. I know which one I'd choose!

    ReplyDelete
  7. I suspect a lot of these folks who have cashed in, have just put it into a larger house.

    Heard on the grapevine some of the larger Northshore homes bought by the penny stock crowd.

    2008/9 gave them a chance to reload at low prices and many have gone up 10X.

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