Thursday, April 15, 2010

Mad Rush!

We are seeing a frenzy of buying along with a 2008-like rise in listings.

A very odd situation. When listings rise so much, buyers generally feel less anxious to dive in, and take their time to asses and bid wisely on their purchases. But this does not seem to be the case. By all accounts the buyers are in a rabid condition. Of course the areas of high excitement have narrowed down.

The Fraser Valley hasn't been invited to the party, which fits in with the 5th wave theory I posted about several weeks ago.

Why the frenzy?

There are several possible reasons for this:

1) We have the April 19th CMHC changes which we have discussed before. Note that the government did it's usual miscalculation. It noticed that housing was on fire, due to their stupidly low rates and 'no-skin-in-the-game' CMHC mortgages and decided to do something about it. OK - so far so good. So they come out and announce the changes to take place over two months later!

That gave time for all those with vested interests (you know who they are - from local media to real estate types) to panic buyers into the market.

It would be like saying to your kid..."I know you are spending most of your allowance on drugs , so in two and a half months I am going to cut you off!" Huh. What do you think the kid is going to do?

In fact the new rules for self-employed borrowers already took effect on April 9th.

2) rates are moving up and borrowers have their pre-approveds in their back pockets. If they don't pull it out and drop it on a house asap, the next one will be at a higher rate, or for lower loans. So BUY NOW! Price be damned.

3) This is the normally busy buying season.

This is it folks. The stars are all aligned. If the market doesn't even wobble with higher inventory, higher rates, HST on new homes, new CMHC rules, Provincial cuts, Olympic bills..............


  1. Sure doesn't look good for the housing market does it? I would say that things seem downright gloomy.

  2. could be because they are rushing to buy before the 19th. Robs numbers show almost 1000 sales last week, but almost 2000 listings.

    We will know in a couple weeks I suppose.

  3. Hi Fish,

    Can anyone post FVREB inventory or can you post a link to Fraser Valley inventory and sales?

    I know we can get the monthly reports from them but wondering how things are progressing mid-month.


  4. Nero

    Rob chipman posts FVREB inventory every week on sunday night along with the GVRD numbers.

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