Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Some Fraser Valley Numbers...

Good analysis:


Here's my take. I love the up-beat title:


May that abundance continue in abundance.

Compared with one year ago:

2% less sales than May 2009 and 14% more listings.
Prices up 8-10% though from last May.

Less sales, more inventory and yet higher prices. I am thinking 5th wave divergence.

Compared with April 2010:

17.6% less sales over-all
7.3% higher listings

Benchmark price down 1% from April.
Median and Average prices flat for Detached and Townhouse from April 2010 ie 0, or +1 or -1%
Apartments are up 4%! Despite double digit less sales and 7.8% more listings!


  1. After surging relentlessly for over a year now. Both FV and GV markets are stumbling. Is this just a breather or a sea change?

  2. I haven't heard a bull or a bear for that matter explain why we are seeing such a divergence of apartments and detached.

  3. Like I've said for a while I think we're in a mid 1990's scenario.. flattish markets

  4. That is a good question. Everyone expected detached to hold up longer and apartments to fall, since inventory has moved up sharply and you are basically buying a strata and not land.

    However it could just be that unaffordability has reached such a high level that buyers have given up on detached and town-houses. FTB used to buy fixer-uppers, then as prices went up they were pushed into T/h and now can only get into apartments.

    That may be the explanation, but it is just conjecture. I do know however of many FTB who have been anxiously trying to get into the market with the fear of higher rates, HST, CMHC changes etc causing them angst that THIS IS IT- their last chance.

    So it would make sense.

  5. "5th wave divergence" now? Is it just me, or does technical analysis seem really good at post-hoc fitting of data, and very bad at predicting anything in a useful way.

  6. Anon- it's just you :0

    No that is true. TA works best with hindsight.

    If it works out, i will say- see it was a 5th wave divergence.

    If it doesn't I will say it was actually a 3rd wave, or an extension of the 5th wave...or some such garbage.

    It is human to look for patterns, the problem is the bias we take with us into the process.


  7. "like I've said for a while I think we're in a mid 1990's scenario.. flattish markets"

    hmmmm, does that mean gold to remain flat for a lonnnnnnnnng period, since we are directly attached to gold. LOL. Are you Austin?

  8. The best scenario we could hope for is continued growth around the world and a CAD which stays below par.

    That would give the Bank of Canada enough courage to change it's diapers, and raise rates meaningfully - and STOP punishing savers to benefit borrowers.

    If ever there was a prodigal son story- this is it. Killing the fatted calf to feed the speculators.

    We need 1% soon, on the way to 3%.

  9. First time buyer,

    Before making a stupid comment you should consider figuring out what you're talking about before posting. When did I say we were attached to gold? I said gold is a better inflation measure than government supplied CPI and based on those inflation adjusted #'s we are no where close to all time highs.

  10. Good ol' Chad...always bringing the anger!

  11. I dont think there is any reason why apartments are going up while detatched goes down. It is probably just statistical noise. I would be willing to bet that within a few months (lets say 4) they will both be going the same direction again.

    If this continues for a while then there might be other forces at work, but for now I dont think there is any signifigance to it.

  12. Davers, for now I agree with you, simply because I can't think of any logical reason as to why there is apartment outperformance. I mentioned earlier that I thought it was a bit of reversion to the mean (detached really started running away from attached/apartments recently). There could be other forces at work like you said, however, we always figure out what those forces were well after the fact.

  13. apartaments are higher simply because more and more people priced out of the expensive detached market are being crowded into the less expensive apartment market in a last frenzy of buying before being priced out forever. It will eventually slow down as well, it is just proof that we are in the final stages of the bubble.

  14. "I said gold is a better inflation measure than government supplied CPI and based on those inflation adjusted #'s we are no where close to all time highs. "

    Ok, i get it now. now RE will not follow gold based inflation. It will remain flat till it remains flat or till gold starts going up or till RE starts going up or... ah, forget it. Getting entangled I am. LOL

  15. Are you incapable of understanding what I said initially? I never said RE follows gold in any way, I simply argued that RE is not anywhere close to all time highs when adjusted for inflation to counter the valuation arguments made by some bears. If you need me to dumb it down for you again then I'm sure I can try.

    Anonymous, that's not how bubbles end, bubbles end with the lower ends of the market (in any asset class, stocks, RE, whatever) dropping first with the higher quality sustaining until the rug gets pulled out.

  16. "I simply argued that RE is not anywhere close to all time highs when adjusted for inflation"

    Ok, I get it now. We still have another leg to go up by another 55.73%. All crystal clear now. LOL. BTW, are you mad at me or just mad?

  17. Who said we needed to make all time highs adjusted for inflation? I'm just poking holes in the bears valuation argument. I really hope you're at very least beginning to understand what was clearly stated several posts earlier.

  18. Bears trolling bulls, another sign the market is turning.

  19. ok, let me try this time. you dont believe what you say but doing it for the sake of poking holes in the bears valuation. Please tell me I got it right this time. Pleeazzzz.