Thursday, June 10, 2010

What would be the best scenario for the bears...

I know everyone has waited patiently for soooo long for this danged correction, that they want it NOW and they want it HARD DOWN.

But actually that would not be the best situation for the bears.

Think 2008/9. We were down hard and sudden and the donut-heads in Ottawa and Victoria panicked and pulled out some bedraggled rabbits out of the hat and up we went again.

If we go down hard, the calls to 'do something' will be deafening and the politicians and Carney will 'do something'..God help us.

So a slow steady decline would be very nice, thank you very much.

Something that doesn't cause panic, that slips under the radar, that allows the Bank of Canada to maybe- if they are feeling very brave- raise rates another 0.25%.

But a decline that keeps giving.

Anyway you wouldn't want a sudden huge drop, imagine those poor Realtors and Mortgage Brokers with cardboard signs at red lights saying..'Spare $5, Mercedes lease payments to make'. Have a heart.

I think another month with declining price, hopefully in all sections and measurements, will start the new trend.


  1. I don't think the media or condo advertisers will allow any such thing as "below the radar."

  2. If I had a choice to make a great investment tomorrow or in 5 years, I'll take tomorrow.

  3. As nice as a slow steady decline would be, I dont see it happening. The whole market is based on panic. Panic to buy when prices are shooting higher, and panic to sell when things start going south.

    If we do start so see drops it probably wont be quite as steep of a decline as 2008 though. All the excess condo inventory caused developers to flood newspapers and radio with ads of steep discounts. I think this probably added to the panic and caused faster drops. If we can stay away from those kind of fire sale ads this time around it could be more gradual, but not by much.

    The media will still cover the drops and with the way everyone talks about RE in this town everyone will know someone who had to sell at a loss. Before you know it the panic will set in again and the boys in Ottawa will try to "save us" all over again.

    Of course, this is IF theres a sustained drop.

  4. what was the situation in the early 90's? Was that period (bear market) which lasted 10 years and did not recover till early 2000s?