Friday, June 18, 2010

TD Bank Report

I cannot find the original report, however there are many places on the net which each report parts of it. Here are some interesting high-lights:

1) Expect housing to drop 7% from 2010 highs

2) Expect Bank of Canada rates to be 1% by the end of this year and 3% by 2011 even as growth slows.

The second forecast seems to go against what the man with his finger on the button, Mark Carney, is saying.

3) 95 cent Loonie +/-

Here is a brief review:

And here is a BNN interview with one of the TD economists. Canada has now surpassed the US in terms of consumer debt to income. Yippeee! time for a party!

This makes up for not winning the Stanley Cup.


  1. Thanks for the links. 1% is still very low. 3% in 2011 would be surprising: unemployment would be close to normal levels again if that happened. With government budgets being pared, I'm not holding my breath.

  2. According to Agent Will's website, this weeks sale/list was over 60%, those are quite strong #'s for those claiming excess inventory will be the catalyst to drive us lower.

  3. Welcome back Chad.

    Inventory is running at 2008 levels. Sales however are higher than 2008, but in most cases lower than 2009, and 2007.

    So which one will bow first, the inventory or sales. We will find out over the next few months.

  4. I feel this leads again to fairly stagnant prices, possibly drift a bit lower or a bit higher but as has been my belief for a couple of months I think this market will not see dramatic moves.

  5. "those are quite strong #'s for those claiming excess inventory will be the catalyst to drive us lower."

    Chad, inventory (supply) and sales (demand) are by far the biggest drivers of prices.

    62% isnt bad compared to the past few months, but is still far from saving the market. What I find interesting is the high number of removed listings over the past few weeks. I would really like to know if the owners of those places plan to relist soon or are planing to wait for a stronger market.

    Sales werent even that strong, listings were just lower than previous weeks. The sales were actually the 3rd lowest of the 8 weeks displayed right now. I think it all depends on the patience of the sellers. If they dont mind pulling listings and waiting, then there probably wont be much of a drop for some months. But if sellers get anxious and start dropping prices (as many daily numbers are indicating) then we could see drops in the coming months.

  6. A couple of months is just a bat of an eye-lid in RE terms.

    What do you think happens after that?

  7. Davers, recall a post I had a while back when I said, while it was just anecdotal evidence, I knew of a lot of people seeing if they could get some people to pay ridiculous prices for their houses but if they were to not get that price, they would just remove it from the market. I believe that's what we're seeing.

    Fish, you misread my post, I said I have believed for a couple of months that the market will remain flat, not that this market will remain flat for a couple of months.