One fish's deluded view on Vancouver RE
This is so Chad doesn't use the Benchmark price drop in the detached and the average price rise in the apartments to make his point :)
Interesting that detached and attached benchmark both fell about 1/4 of the average drop, yet the apartment's benchmark rose by less than 1/10 of the average rise. It probably doesnt mean anything, but its just interesting. It will be interesting to see what kind of data teranet shows for May in a couple of months. If I remember correctly the benchmark topped out 1 month before the teranet data topped during the drop of 08.
Apartments beginning to outperform detached is due simply to the affordability factor IMHO.
not because of gold prices movement? Or is it affordability measured in gold you are talking about.
Don't be fooled by randomness: apartments outperforming "all properties" is noise. Of course, something has to outperform and something underperform the "all properties" average.
Sure something has to outperform but that usually means going up more when prices are rising or going down less when prices are falling, it is quite unique for one class to be down 4% and the other up 3%, a swing of 7% in one month is fairly abnormal.
Actually it's more like one is down 5% and the other is up 4%, a difference of 9% is really interesting.
And first_time_buyer, I see you created that name in 2005, probably a year or so after you began wanting to buy a home for the first time but clearly you've been waiting for almost 6 years for prices to come down.. you have been WRONG for 6 years and the market has rubbed your face in a 75% gain since you became bearish!!! This has to be one of the most comical things I have ever seen coming from a degenerate like yourself. LOL 75% against you, we're honestly laughing out loud at you here, just be thankful you can't short Van RE prices, lord would that be ugly.
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Chad, Larry's April stats had apartments down and Attached/Detached up. Your "affordability factor" is just an example of seeing patterns where they don't exist (being fooled by randomness).
ok, so gold gained 75% in last 6 years. what was 75%, attached, detached or townhomes or shacks. and what is more linked to gold, apartments or detached. or is that land of detached and strata of apartments more attached to gold and windows to platinum? I am a bit confused.
To be fair to Chad, I think his point is that money has become worth-less during the last decade.So much printing, speculation, low interest rates, bail-outs that the value of money has dropped...and this is amply demonstrated in the value of gold...and I suppose, in the value of RE in Vancouver.However I think he is looking in the rear-view window. What we have coming is the de-leverage of excess, unless of course they decide to make money completely worthless.De-leverage is when so much debt has been piled on an asset, that it bears no relation to either the replacement value or the income flow to service that debt.We are there now- whether personal, company or countries.
That was me btw- just had too much chardonnay to type straight.
Ah Chardonnay, the golden elixir of my youth.
The deleverage trade was 2008, remember? It was the only reason the bears even had a few months to celebrate, that is of course until RE rebounded because smart money bought up the bottom, oh sorry I mean CMHC and BoC saved our lives... always an excuse.
not the bounce in gold prices?
2008 was just the beginning.Deleverage is the unwinding of debt which is loaded on the back assets which do not have the cash-flow to support them and are therefore used capital gains to sustain them.Things weren't as bad in Canada as the US, so the emergency measures just inflated our bubble higher.Think how much more debt can be piled on in a 0.25% rate environment.Maybe I'll throw a post up about this soon.
Fish do you really think a 0.5% rate environment really changes how much debt people are going to take on? I don't disagree that Canada's debt is an issue but where I disagree is that the day of reckoning is coming anytime soon.
"day of reckoning" as in gold touching $5000? and van avg detached $3m?
ftb, could you kindly give it a rest? While I don't agree with chad's gold argument you clearly don't even understand it. And why are you so obsessed with chad anyway?
hey vibe, do you understand his gold argument. I dont even try to understand it because there is none. He is gasping at straws. And I dont remember sending you an invitation to read my comments. You can safely ignore them and trust me I wont mind it either.