Saturday, September 10, 2011

Another thing to watch this Fall


The chart would not up-load so I put a link above. As you can see 2010 was a go-go year for our markets. They had a little dip into August and then Ben Bernanke made his famous Jackson Hole QE 2 speech which ignited all commodities and risk assets.

The result was stunning, a 25% rise in the TSE which peaked in March- just a couple of months before our property market peaked.

Now fast forward to today. We had a bigger dip into August, all 25% of the gain in fact. And then we had another little pop and it looked like we were going to repeat 2010. However it is losing steam. I am going to watch this index more carefully. I very much doubt we can see more declines in the TSE and still have a robust housing market, the two seem very closely related and the thread seems to be 'speculation'.

1 comment:

  1. I think the big story for Canada will be a reversion of commodities to lower values; I think even Canada's central banker has bought the Kool Aid regarding China's "miracle". Not sure how soon it will happen but I think China, and most commodities, will hit significant headwinds within the decade.